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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301049
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The 6-hour forecast: a cold front from 29.5N93W to 21N98W. 
S of 24N W of front: NW to N winds 25 to 35 knots and sea heights
reaching 8 feet. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 01/1200 UTC, 
consists of: the persistence or threat of a SW near gale or severe
gale in IRVING. The threat of N or NE near gale or gale in AGADIR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 08N14W. A surface trough is along 18W/19W from 08N
southward. The ITCZ is along 03N21W, to the Equator along 30W, to
the Equator along 44W. Another branch of the ITCZ is along 05N40W
04N45W 03N49W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong from 04N southward between 32W and 44W, and from 06N 
southward between 49W and 53W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 
10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge passes through NE Florida, to 26N83W, and 
beyond the NE Yucatan Peninsula. is along 83W/84W. High level 
moisture is within 300 nm to 360 nm to the west and NW of the
line that passes through 32N77W 26N80W 23N81W, and then from 23N
southward from 96W eastward.

A deep layer cyclonic circulation center is moving through the
Texas Panhandle. It supports a cold front that is passing through
east Texas, along the Texas Gulf of Mexico coast, into the Deep
South of Texas, and beyond, into NE Mexico. A pre-frontal trough
is within 30 nm to 60 nm to the ESE of the cold front from 25N to
29N. convective precipitation: numerous strong has been moving
from the middle Texas coastal plains northeastward, during the
late night and early morning hours. Numerous strong now is
concentrated in Louisiana and its coastal waters, from 29N 
northward between 90W and 94W.

A 1000 mb low pressure center is in Mexico near 24N98W. A surface
trough extends from the low center to 19N97W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that
is near 32N67W, beyond South Carolina.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES 
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND 
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Mist and haze, with 1 to 3 miles at many of the platform sites, 
and some smaller areas of 3 to 5 miles, except for the platforms
that are in the Texas coastal waters. 

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. 
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Beaumont/Port Arthur. LOUISIANA: rainshowers
and thunder, some heavy at times in the SW corner of the state.
MISSISSIPPI: rainshowers and thunder in Natchez. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across Cuba, toward an upper
level trough, whose cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 70W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the 
SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

A middle level-to-upper level 22N70W cyclonic circulation center
is spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the area from 75W
eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic 
Ocean between 56W and 72W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, 
from 17N to 20N between 72W and 82W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the
Caribbean Sea from 30N southward between 60W and 80W. Convective 
precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the Atlantic Ocean from
23N northward between 60W and 70W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.50 in 
Guadeloupe. 

...HISPANIOLA...

A middle level-to-upper level 22N70W cyclonic circulation center
is spreading broad cyclonic wind flow across the island. 
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate 
from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 23N in the Atlantic Ocean between
56W and 72W. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, inland and in 
the rest of the coastal waters, from 17N to 20N between 72W and 
82W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. 
Punta Cana: VFR. earlier light rain has ended for the moment.
Santiago: VFR. earlier light rain has ended for the moment. 
Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1400 feet. earlier rain has ended for
the moment.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the first 36 hours. Expect cyclonic
wind flow with a trough for the rest of the time period. The GFS 
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL 
forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will be
associated with an inverted trough, across the entire area.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N44W, to 
25N49W, and 19N54W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are 
possible from 16N northward between 40W and 60W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N15W. A 
trough extends from the cyclonic center toward the Cabo Verde
Islands. A 1017 mb low pressure center that is near 22N24W.
onvective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, scattered to 
broken low level clouds, to the NW of the line that passes through
32N09W 20N20W 13N30W 14N40W. 

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 08N
northward between 30W and 80W. A surface ridge is along 33N15W, to
a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 32N36W, to a 1026 mb 
that is near 32N36W, beyond South Carolina.


For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT