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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet
to 11 feet, in the coastal waters of Colombia, from 11N to 13N 
between 73W and 76W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for 
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coast of Liberia near 05N08W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N08W to the Equator along 13W, to 
02S20W, to 02S32W, and 03S39W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N southward
from 55W eastward. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level W-to-SW wind flow is moving across 
the Gulf of Mexico. This wind flow is part of the more overall 
anticyclonic wind flow that covers the Gulf of Mexico, parts of 
the Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean Sea. A surface ridge passes 
through 32N69W, across Florida, into the SW corner of the Gulf of 
Mexico. 

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL 
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KXIH. 

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KVAF, and KDLP.

MVFR: KHHV, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KGBK, KEHC, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR,
KGRY, KATP, KMDJ, KIKT, KVOA, KVKY, and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: half MVFR/half IFR, with a few LIFR places. LOUISIANA:
IFR mostly/some MVFR. MISSISSIPPI: mostly LIFR. IFR in Natchez and
McComb. ALABAMA: IFR between Florida and Mississippi. MVFR in
Dothan. FLORIDA: light rain has ended for the moment in Milton.
LIFR/IFR/MVFR from Cross City to the west and northwest. MVFR from
Brooksville to the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. LIFR
from Sarasota to Punta Gorda to Ft.Myers. MVFR in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 14N northward. Middle level to upper level
NW wind flow covers the area from 14N southward from 75W eastward.

Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SW
corner of the area, from 06N to 13N between 79W in the Caribbean
Sea to 88W in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. 

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor 
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea,
primarily from 75W eastward, and between 77W and 86W.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 28/0000 
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.19 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

NE wind flow from 250 mb to 800 mb is moving across the area. 
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor 
imagery across Hispaniola. 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo/La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana:
MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. earlier light rain has ended for the
moment. Santiago: MVFR. mist. ceiling 1000 feet. Puerto Plato:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will 
move across the area for the first 36 hours. A trough will move
across the area after 36 hours, bringing more N wind flow with the
front, for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow will move across the
area, either with a ridge cutting across Hispaniola, or with a
ridge to the north of Hispaniola, in the Atlantic Ocean. The GFS 
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows NE wind flow will be moving across
the area for the first 30 hours of the 48-hour forecast period.
E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area for the rest of the
forecast time.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N47W to 30N58W and 29N67W. A 
surface trough is along 31N49W 28N84W 26N65W. Middle level to 
upper level westerly wind flow is moving on top of the area of the
cold front. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible to
the northwest of the line that passes through 32N44W, 26N58W, to 
20N72W.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N28W cyclonic circulation 
center, to 23N35W and 19N53W. Broad middle level to upper level 
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the west and 
northwest of this trough. A surface trough is along 32N39W 28N43W 
26N48W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 
24N northward between 38W and 53W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward
between Africa and 40W. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 
35N28W. 

A surface ridge passes through 32N69W, across the Bahamas and Cuba,
to central Nicaragua.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT