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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281659
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 17W-23W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
02N13W TO 04N26W TO 03N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTH 
TEXAS NEAR 33N97W THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED IN 
THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N92W. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS 
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OVER THE NE GULF AND 
FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WEST TO 28N86W. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY IS N OF 25N E OF 86W. FARTHER WEST...A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 28N86W INTO THE LOW CENTER WITH A COLD FRONT SW 
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST NEAR 
22N98W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 300 NM 
SWATH OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM ACROSS 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 22N98W. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY REGION 
BY WEDNESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN 
WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY THURSDAY...AS THE 
LOW MOVES INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION AND THE EXISTING 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE BASIN...THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO FRESH 
BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS 
AFTERNOON. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO 
OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY E OF 75W THAT ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE 
OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WEDNESDAY...BEGIN TO STALL AND BECOME 
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT 
MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NEW 
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN THE VICINITY OF 43N62W. 
THE LOW SUPPORTS THE PARENT 988 MB SURFACE LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED 
996 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 
THIS LOW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 27N70W TO 
27N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. MOST MID-LEVEL ENERGY 
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FLORIDA 
WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W. LOOKING 
AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS POISED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEDNESDAY AND 
DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT MOVES N-NE TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS BY 
FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Apr-2015 16:59:06 UTC