Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300024 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECT ISSUE TIME 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 
11.5N-14N BETWEEN 73W-77W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUE 
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE UPPER 
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS INDICATED THE MED TO UPPER SUPPORT IS 
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SURFACE WAVE AXIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF 
A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 
7N-13N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE 
OF A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS SURGE IS BEING 
AMPLIFIED NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N59W 
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR DOMINICA TO INLAND OVER 
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W MOVING W-NW NEAR 35 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE HAS 
MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W S OF 17N TO 
OVER PANAMA MOVING W-SW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN AN SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 21N17W ALONG 12N21W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 5N44W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO 
TEXAS CLIPPING THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT 
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS SE GEORGIA 
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST N OF 29N W 
OF THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA. 
THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 89W-93W. SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST 
WITH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N  
TO A POSITION FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE WHERE IT WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
NEAR ZONAL W-NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW CARIBBEAN 
S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTERNOON/ 
EVENING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED 
INLAND OVER MOST OF CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING 
THE REMINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. A 
PERSISTENT W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH END OF 
THE WEEK WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. E CARIBBEAN 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THE W 
CARIBBEAN BY THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY 
THU AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRI. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W LEAVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH CLEAR SKIES. A TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUE WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THUS 
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
WED AND THU. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA 
ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO OVER THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 28N78W TO 
BEYOND 32N75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 27N78W 
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS 
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE FRONT ABOVE AND TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO TO 30N71W 
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 
67W-71W. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A 
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 29N50W THEN NW TO 
31N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH 
NEAR 32N57W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS 
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 6N-28N E OF 50W. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Jun-2015 00:25:00 UTC