| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO 
4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...     

AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A SURFACE TROUGH 
TRAILS SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW AND RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 
GULF FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA TO 29N86W TO 27N91W. CONVECTION HAS 
WEAKENED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH TONIGHT. 
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN 
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION OVER MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS NEARING THE SHORELINE ALONG THE WESTERN 
GULF. THIS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAY AFFECT WATERS FROM 
21N TO 23N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY THIS 
MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND WEAK WESTERN 
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE. MODELS ARE FORECASTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF TODAY WITH A 
FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO 
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

A 1006 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W SUPPORTS WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH HAS ENTERED THE 
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO 11N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 78W. 
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. 
OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN WHICH INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN 
THE TRADE WIND FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER 
ANTILLES. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE 
BASIN...EXCEPT FOR WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN 100 NM NORTH OF THE 
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 85W TO 87W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
ISLAND MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE 
ISLAND ON SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SUPPORTS 
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING 
OFFSHORE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTHERN ATLC WATERS. CLUSTERS OF 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW EXTENDS OVER OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NORTH 
OF 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS CONVECTION IS SPREADING RAPIDLY 
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL AFFECT WATERS N OF 30N 
EASTWARD TO 70 W THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1015 
MB IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 30N68W AND IS DISSIPATING TODAY 
AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE US COAST MOVES EASTWARD. FARTHER 
EAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 
32N51W TO 24N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
SE OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND 
WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY 
1022MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N33W...WHILE A 1017 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N26W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION OFF THE EASTERN US WILL SPREAD 
EASTWARD TO 60W. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE 
ATLC OFF THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Apr-2015 05:42:25 UTC