Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 181751

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen 
offshore of the mid-Atlc coast by tonight. The associated cold 
front is expected in 24 hours to to extend into the SW North 
Atlc region generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds 
generally N of 29N and E of front to 60W. See latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for 
more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 
02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N20W 
to 01N36W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Isolated 
moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 00W-17W...and S of 
03N between 38W-50W.



As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 
Corpus Christie to beyond Brownsville Texas drifting E. A warm 
front extends from Corpus Christie to beyond Houston Texas. 
Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 60 nm 
of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is inland over 
E Texas and Louisiana producing localized flooding. Elsewhere, 
the Gulf of Mexico has 5-20 kt SE to S surface flow with 
strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Radar imagery also shows 
scattered showers over the NE Gulf N of 29N. Mostly fair weather 
is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper 
level trough is over N Mexico supporting the surface front. 
Upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis over central and 
E Texas. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 
85W with strong subsidence E of 95W and S of 25N. Expect in 24 
hours for the cold front to extend from Lake Charles Louisiana 
to Brownsville Texas with convection.   


15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest 
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Overall tranquil conditions 
persist across the Caribbean basin. Scattered showers are inland 
over Nicaragua, Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, an 
upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. An upper 
level trough is over the E Caribbean. Very strong subsidence is 
over the entire Caribbean. Expect in next 24 hours for a surface 
trough to advect over the Windward Islands with scattered 


Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal 
waters. Pesently, scattered showers are noted S of the island 
moving W with the tradewinds. Winds will diminish slightly today 
into Thursday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers 
are possible today as long as the E-NE flow persists.


A cold front is presently over N Georgia moving E. A developing 
gale is forecast for the western Atlantic in advance of this 
front. See above. A broad 1024 mb surface high is centered near 
29N63W. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic from 
31N33W to 26N44W. A stationary front continues to 23N57W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-26N between 49W-55W. 
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. 
Expect over the next 24 hours for both fronts to move E over the 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Jan-2017 17:51:57 UTC