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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031038
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N12W TO 04N17W TO 03N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
03N21W AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 09N42W TO 00N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N44W TO BRAZIL
NEAR 01S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-06N
BETWEEN 10W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 40W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N89W TO N OF VERA
CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR ARE N OF 24N E OF FRONT DUE TO
MORNING FOG. FURTHER S OVER S MEXICO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-94W. 20-25 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10 KT SE TO S FLOW IS E OF
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO W OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS SMOKE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N E OF
FRONT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N76W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. 10-20
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 

HISPANIOLA...        

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 79W-80W N
OF 27N DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 27N57W TO 21N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR
39N27W. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA