Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 6N21W 5N30W 6N45W 7N54W. 
AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN OVER THE ITCZ FROM 3N TO 
9N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W...BRINGING WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH 
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF 
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. MODERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN 
THIS REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16N44W 
TO 6N46W. THIS TROUGH IS ONLY CREATING A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS 
FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WESTERN FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N87W CONTINUING SW TO 25N90W. 
THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT DIPS ACROSS THE NW 
GULF WATERS TO 24N95W. SE OF THE COLD FRONT...CYCLOGENESIS HAS 
TAKEN PLACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1013 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN MEXICO GULF COAST TO 
NEAR 18N94W. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT ACROSS THE GULF W OF 90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
THE SURFACE LOW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS AND 
INTO THE W ATLC WATERS. THIS FRONT FALLS UNDER A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE N OF 21N E OF 88W...EXTENDING 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W TO 
83W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INCREASED MOISTURE AND 
INSTABILITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA...BRINGING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC FROM 31N80W TO 
CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC WATERS N OF 23N W OF 76W. THIS 
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 72W 
TO BEYOND 32N72W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1015 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 26N53W TO 
23N58W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 
47W-54W. THIS LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N59W TO 25N51W. 
FARTHER EAST... A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N37W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N40W TO 28N45W AND INTO THE 
1015 MB LOW NEAR 29N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LOW AND 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 39W N OF 28N.

$$
GARCIA/HUFFMAN