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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-72W ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC INTO 
THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT. SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N11W ALONG 2N16W TO 1N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N35W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 5N E OF 16W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 
30W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND OVER W ATLC AND 
FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE W 
ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. AN BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO 
INTO THE PLAIN STATES GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NEAR 
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF 
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS 
NEAR 25N96W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATING THE GULF THIS 
EVENING. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF 
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES. 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT E AND NE THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN WED THROUGH 
THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT 
BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING ALONG 28N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N75W THEN ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE 
NE TIP OF NICARAGUA. A REMNANT SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N82W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 15N BETWEEN THE SHEAR LINE AND THE 
COLD FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER 
COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD 
ISLANDS TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS 
ARE N OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE MONA 
PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF THE SHEAR LINE LEAVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE EARLY TONIGHT. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH 
THU. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA WED NIGHT LATE THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH 
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO 
STRONG TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO A 
DYING FRONT IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA. 
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DYING FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT 
TO THE W WILL PERSIST AS THE DYING FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 
HISPANIOLA WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT TO THE W TONIGHT THEN STALL 
OVER THE AREA. A RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC 
LATER IN THE WEEK ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRI. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO OVER THE W ATLC 
AND THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N61W ALONG 25N67W THEN ACROSS 
THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA 
NEAR 20N75W. A DYING COLD FRONT IS TO THE E EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N59W ALONG 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND 
THE DYING COLD FRONT N OF 23N AND WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE 
DYING COLD FRONT N OF 23N. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS JUST N 
OF THE AREA W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE 
FRONTS IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 
MB HIGH N OF AZORES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N32W TO 21N31W AND IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING W NEAR 27N33W. THE W ATLC 
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DYING FRONT OVERNIGHT. A RE-
ENFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND 
CONTINUE W THROUGH WED AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT. A 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS WED AND WED NIGHT 
THEN DRIFT SE THROUGH THE W ATLC THU INTO FRI WHILE SLOWLY 
WEAKENING. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE FAR W 
ATLC FRI EXTENDING FROM 32N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA BY LATE FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jan-2015 23:59:27 UTC