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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A tropical wave in moving across the western Atlantic with axis
from 12N57W to 03N58W, moving west at around 15-20 kt over the
past 24 hours.The wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated moderate
convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave N of
07N between 55W-61W.

A tropical wave is moving over western Venezuela with axis from
13N69W to 05N70W, moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
This wave is also embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated convection
is from 12N-14N between 62W-67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W along 8N21W to 7N33W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 6N44W to South America near 5N52W. Isolated 
moderate convection is from S of 05N between 68W-72W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

An upper-level low is centered over NE Mexico extends across the 
western half of the basin W of 93W. An upper-level ridge is
anchored over the Yucatan peninsula near 22N90W covering the
remainder of the Gulf and the W Caribbean. An upper-level low is
developing over southern Florida enhancing convection across the
peninsula, the Florida Straits and western Cuba. At the surface, a
1013 mb surface low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near
19N93W. A surface trough extends N from the low to 23N93W with
scattered moderate convection S of 24N between 92W- 95W. A surface
ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a pair
of 1020 mb highs centered over southern Louisiana and the E Gulf
near 27N87W. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle anticyclonic flow
across the whole basin. Expect during the next 24 hours for a
surface low to continue moving W with convection. Surface ridging
will prevail elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

An upper-level low is developing over southern Florida enhancing
convection across the peninsula, the Florida Straits and western
Cuba. The broad area of high pressure that prevails across the
Atlantic also extends over the Caribbean waters. Low-level
moisture transported by the moderate to fresh trades is generating
isolated convection across the whole basin. The proximity of the
Monsoon Trough over Panama is supporting scattered moderate to
strong convection S of 10N and W of 78W. A tropical wave currently
over western Venezuela is enhancing convection S of 12 between
62W-69W. Expect within the next 24 hours for winds to pulse to
fresh to strong mainly across the central portion of the basin in
the afternoon/evening hours.

...HISPANIOLA... 

Fair weather prevails across the basin at this time. Low-level
moisture combined with daytime heating will generate showers and
thunderstorms across the island each afternoon/evening today and through
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

An upper-level low is developing over southern Florida enhancing
convection over the W Atlantic mainly W of 78W. Elsewhere, a
broad area of high pressure extends across the remainder of the
basin. To the E, a surface trough extends from 30N53W to 20N41W.
Isolated showers are observed within this boundary. A low-
amplitude tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Please
refer to the section above for details. Little change is expected
across the basin within the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA