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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 240540
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N32W TO 
3N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND 
DUST IS N OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N19W TO 
5N32W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 5N34W TO THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 0W-
4W...FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 17W-
22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 36W-54W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AT 
38N73W PRODUCING 10-20 KT SW RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND 
ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 21N-22N BETWEEN 87W-
90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS 
PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS AND NE 
MEXICO N OF 24N BETWEEN 96W-101W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. 
SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST WITH 
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO 
EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER TEXAS TO MOVE E TO ARKANSAS... 
LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE 
S COAST OF CUBA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 
9N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER NW COLOMBIA...E PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S 
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N NICARAGUA... E 
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO 
LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...N OF PUERTO RICO...AND N OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
AROUND JAMAICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SUN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N70W 
TO 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 
1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N32W WITH SURFACE 
RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS...OR BEAUFORT SCALE 6...ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS 
BETWEEN ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N60W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 57W-60W. ANOTHER 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS AND 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-May-2015 05:41:10 UTC