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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 041727
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
105 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 9 
TO 12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON...THEN RESUMING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...DEVELOPING GALE IN THE GULF...

THE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY PREVAILING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF WILL MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND A 
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS BY TONIGHT. 
WITH THIS...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING THE WESTERN 
GULF N OF 27N AND W OF 95W BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAILING 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W SW TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 04S30W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 
03S39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...      

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W 
IS EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE 
GULF...KEEPING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS 
THE BASIN. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE 
SURFACE...AND WITH STABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS ALSO...THE 
BASIN CONTINUES UNDER BENIGN WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A 
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS  
ENTERING THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL 
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS 
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. DESPITE THIS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS GENERATING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE OBSERVED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY E OF 80W WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE 
FLOW IS W OF 80W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE 
AREA N OF COLOMBIA...FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT 
FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST TO DIMINISH A 
BIT THIS AFTERNOON BUT PICKING UP SPEED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY 
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES 
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR 
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W 
IS COVERING MOST OF THE BASIN W OF 40W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. 
TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVAILS. THE 
FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE N-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT FROM 
31N44W TO 27N54W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES 
WEAK...EXTENDING TO 27N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 38W-45W. A 
1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N12W EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE 
E ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE. 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WITH 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Mar-2015 17:27:29 UTC