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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 080558
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT WED JUL 08 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 19W...MOVING W 
AT 5 KT. ACCORDING TO METEOSAT IMAGERY...THE WAVE CONTINUES 
BEING ENGULFED BY SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST...WHICH IS SUPPORTING 
LACK OF CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN. ITS 
AXIS IS APPROXIMATELY NEAR 70W AND MOVES W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A LOW TO MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ELSEWHERE... 
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 77W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO 
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM 11N TO 17N AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TSTMS S 
OF 11N. DEEP CONVECTION N OF 11N IS BEING HINDER IN PART DUE TO 
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
08N20W TO 09N28W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N34W TO 07N41W TO 04N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N89W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE W-NW GULF TO THE 
CENTRAL BASIN WHERE LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW 
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. 
MODERATE MOIST AIR CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ALONG WITH A 
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA 
SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 
27N E OF 85W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR PARTLY INHIBITS 
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE AND RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 
28N85W. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 
89W AND 92W WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. E TO SE WINDS OF 15 KT 
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NEARBY THE HIGH CENTER IN THE NE GULF 
WHERE WINDS ARE OF 5 KT. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH 
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT IN THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH REGION...THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE 
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD ENHANCE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO 
TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN. SEE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION ABOVE. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY 
AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD  
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WHERE DUST AND HAZY 
CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W WITH SEAS FROM 
8 TO 11 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17N 
BETWEEN 72W AND 83W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL. FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-83W ARE FORECAST TO 
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...                                    

SHALLOW MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH AIR LIFTING PROVIDED BY 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N-NW ISLAND AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. SAHARAN DUST CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED ACROSS THE EASTERN 
ISLAND...WHICH SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY CONDITIONS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N72W ALONG 
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 
24N TO 29N W OF 72W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 43N53W AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 36N31W. HIGH PRESSURE AND 
RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR 
TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE SECTION ABOVE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Jul-2015 05:58:56 UTC