Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231059

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
559 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1001 mb centered across
the central Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral is producing 
near gale to gale force SE winds generally N of 27N W of 75W. 
These gale force conditions are expected to persist off the coast 
of Florida in the SW North Atlc waters through 25/0600 UTC. See 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
03N17W to 01N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 01N20W to the Equator near 30W and along the Equator to 40W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N-08N
between 08W-14W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm 
either side of the ITCZ axis between 15W-33W.


The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section is
supported aloft by an upper level trough with axis along 80W and 
a vigorous mid-level low and associated energy centered over the 
southern Florida peninsula this morning. The associated cold 
front extends from the 1001 mb low near 28N81W to central Cuba 
near 22N79W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. While most of the 
precipitation is occurring across the Florida Straits and across 
eastern portions of the Florida peninsula into the SW North Atlc 
waters...a few lingering isolated showers are occurring E of 89W
within the western periphery of the low. Otherwise...the 
remainder of the basin generally W of 90W is under the influence 
of weak high pressure anchored by a 1014 mb high centered across 
the SW Gulf near 19N94W and another weak high pressure center at
1011 mb near 28N93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail 
across the western Gulf this morning and are expected to become 
more southerly by Thursday night into Friday as low pressure 
develops across the central CONUS. The next cold front is forecast
to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Friday night.

Most of the Caribbean remains under the influence of dry and
relatively stable west-northwesterly flow aloft. A mid-level low
and associated energy remains across the Florida peninsula and
Florida Straits this morning supporting a cold front extending 
across central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean waters from 22N79W 
to 19N81W to 18N85W. A pre-frontal surface trough is also 
analyzed from central Cuba near the cold front to offshore of NE 
Nicaragua near 14N82W. Isolated showers and possible isolated 
tstms are noted within 180 nm E of the surface trough while 
isolated showers are possible N of 17N E of 86W in association 
with the cold front. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds are occurring in
wake of the front which are expected to weaken gradually through 
Thursday as the front progresses eastward as dissipates across the
north-central waters Thursday night into Friday. Farther east...a
stationary front remains analyzed across the Leeward Islands to
the adjacent southern coastal waters of Puerto Rico with isolated
showers occurring N of 16N E of 68W. The remainder of the basin 
is under mostly fair skies and relatively tranquil conditions as 
the overall trade wind flow is disrupted with the presence of the 
frontal systems impacting the basin. A more normal trade wind 
synoptic pattern is expected by Saturday night into Sunday.

Isolated showers are expected to continue as an approaching pre- 
frontal surface trough and cold front increase cloudiness and 
probability of convective precipitation through Thursday. The 
front will reach the Windward Passage by Thursday night and 
gradually weaken as the low pressure system associated with the 
front moves N-NE Friday into Saturday.

A broad area of low pressure is analyzed across the Florida
peninsula that stretches influence eastward across the much of 
the SW North Atlc W of 70W this morning. In addition to the 
area of near gale to gale force winds occurring with the low as 
it tracks eastward...scattered to numerous showers and widely
scattered tstms are occurring across a large area N of 24W W of 
70W. The low is expected to be slow to move E-NE and N of the 
discussion area by Saturday. Farther east...a middle to upper 
level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 41N47W 
that supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near
32N44W extending SW to 23N52W becoming stationary to 18N63W. 
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 180 nm E of the 
front and from 10N-22N between 40W-53W. Finally...the remainder 
of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge 
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered S of the Azores near 37W27W.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Feb-2017 10:59:52 UTC