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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 222357
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/2100 UTC IS IN THE 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.2N 91.7W. 
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 78 NM TO THE WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE 
DEPRESSION IS MOVING ESE AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND 
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND 
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES 
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 82W-90W. 


...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 185 NM S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 12N23W TO 05N24W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 09N AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N 
BETWEEN 24W-26W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 04N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING AN AREA 
OF WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION 
TO DEVELOP. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 
08N-12N BETWEEN 36W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS 130 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N57W TO 07N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE THIS...ONLY 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS VISIBLE ALONG 13N FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 
57W-60W AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT 
OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES FROM 08N27W TO 08N36W...AND STARTS AGAIN 
FROM 07N41W TO 05N48W TO 09N57W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-14N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

T.D. NINE CONTINUES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. FOR MORE 
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS FROM 30N93W TO THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W AND CONNECTION TO A 1002 MB LOW 
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 39N70W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 26N 
BETWEEN 82W-88W. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF N OF 25N WHILE 15-20 KT NE FLOW WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR CONVECTION ARE PREVAILING S OF 25N. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND FOR THE COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE SE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE NW PORTION OF 
THE BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF 81W 
BETWEEN 18N-23N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 17N 
BETWEEN 72W-81W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF E CUBA...JAMAICA 
AND S HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS E OF 71W. AT UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W.  ABUNDANT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ENTER THE BASIN MOVING 
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...                                                  

FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N80W 
AND CONNECTION TO A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 39N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM W OF 58W BETWEEN 27N-45N. TO THE E...A 1012 
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W WITH A SURFACE 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 24N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 49W-54W. TO 
THE NE OF THIS FEATURE...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT E 
OF 29W BETWEEN 30N-44N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW 
FROM 30N29W TO 23N32W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 34N29W ENHANCING CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH 
CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 23:58:07 UTC