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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201157
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
657 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 
01N24W, to the Equator along 29W, to 02N35W, crossing the Equator
along 37W, to 02S40W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong from 07N11W 07N30W 06N42W 03N51W
southward. 

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N to 20N between Africa
and 60W, in areas of broken low level clouds.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough extends from Colorado/Kansas to Texas to north
central Mexico. The trough is supporting a cold front that runs 
from north-to-south, from north central Texas to north central 
Mexico. Return SE wind flow spans the open waters of the Gulf of 
Mexico. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in 
Texas from 27N to 31N between 96W and 99W, from the middle Texas 
coast northward. Other rainshowers cover the rest of the Texas
from the border with Mexico northward between the coast and 100W.

An upper level ridge is along 86W/87W. High level moisture is
being pushed across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico with the
anticyclonic wind flow around the ridge.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL 
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none. 

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KIKT, and KDLP.

MVFR: KBQX, KXIH, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KEIR,
KVQT, KGHB, and KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: IFR/MVFR and rainshowers with thunder at times, from the 
deep South of Texas, northward. LOUISIANA: LIFR around Lake 
Pontchartrain. MVFR/IFR from Baton Rouge southwestward to the 
coast. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR from Natchez to Hattiesburg southward.
ALABAMA: LIFR between Florida and Mississippi. MVFR in Evergreen.
FLORIDA: LIFR at the NAS in Pensacola, in Apalachicola, in Cross 
City, and in Brooksville. IFR in Perry and MacDill AFB. MVFR in
Sarasota. LIFR in Punta Gorda. MVFR/IFR in the Ft.Myers
metropolitan area. MVFR in Marathon Key.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, TO FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...

The middle level-to-upper level cyclonic circulation center that 
was in Virginia 24 hours ago, has moved into the western Atlantic 
Ocean, near 29N70W. Cyclonic wind flow is sweeping across the 
western Atlantic Ocean, Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, with this
cyclonic center and an accompanying trough. A cold front extends 
from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 30N72W, curving to
27N71W, the NW Bahamas and SE Florida near 25N80W. Convective 
precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 23N northward 
between 62W and 70W. Rainshowers are possible also from 22N to 
25N between 70W and 80W, across the Bahamas.

...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...

Deep layer cyclonic wind flow, with a central Atlantic Ocean
trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward between 30W 
and 50W. A stationary front is along 32N41W 22N50W 19N60W,
across the NE Caribbean Sea, to Puerto Rico, and the SE coastal 
sections of the Dominican Republic. Convective precipitation: 
isolated moderate from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans 
the entire Caribbean Sea. High level clouds are moving from the
Yucatan Peninsula, across the Greater Antilles, and into the
Caribbean Sea from 14N northward from 74W eastward.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor 
imagery elsewhere across the area.

Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, from
70W eastward, and between 70W and 84W, in areas of broken low 
level clouds.

The 24-hour rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 20/0000 
UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.01 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. NW wind flow 
is present also from 600 mb to 800 mb. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. 
Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible inland, and in 
the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti, VFR. for the 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1800 feet. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plato: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow, will 
move across the area during the next 48 hours, first with a trough
and after the trough, and then being on the eastern side of a
ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will 
start with SW wind flow, with an anticyclonic circulation center 
that will be along to the south of Hispaniola. A trough will
follow right away, bringing NW wind flow to Hispaniola, for the
rest of day one. The first half of day two will consist of more NW
wind flow, with the trough. The second half of day two will
consist of N wind flow, as an anticyclonic circulation center
moves from Cuba to Haiti. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that day one will consist of NW wind flow, being on the northern
side of an east-to-west oriented Caribbean Sea ridge. The first
half of day two will consist of N wind flow, with a trough to the
east of Hispaniola and a ridge to the west of Hispaniola. The rest
of day two will consist of NE wind flow, as the ridge moves closer
to Hispaniola. 

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 25W eastward. An upper level cyclonic 
circulation center is inland near the Morocco coast near 32N09W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N29W, to 28N32W, 22N34W, to 
14N40W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 32N52W. Surface 
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest 
of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front, and to the east of the 
western Atlantic Ocean frontal boundary.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Feb-2017 11:57:30 UTC