| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD 
FRONT FROM 31N72W TO 23N78W...AND A NEW FRONT FROM 31N78W TO 
29.5N80W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 
FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. W WINDS 
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT 
IS ALONG 28N83W TO 26N87W TO 29N95W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 87W 
AND 89W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE 
REST OF THIS MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N55W 17N58W 14N61W. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE 
WAVE IS BREAKING AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE WAVE. IT WILL 
CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N62W 21N60W 18N61W TROUGH. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 57W AND 60W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM 
RADIUS OF 18N54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 10N TO 
18N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W...CURVING TO 8N16W AND 7N17W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 5N30W AND 4N47W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 
40W AND 60W.  

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND 
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....TO FLORIDA...AND TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IS 
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W...ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN 
CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARE 
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO... 
RACING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...TO 
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED 
AT...KMZG...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK... 
KGHB...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...AND KMIS.  

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
MANY AREAS OF THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. THE 
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST FLORIDA IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN 
WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

...FROM THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 
THE U.S.A...INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N60W...AND TO 18N61W JUST OUTSIDE THE 
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N62W IN THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 20N55W 
17N58W 14N61W IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH.  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N 
BETWEEN 57W AND 60W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND WITHIN A 30 NM 
RADIUS OF 18N54W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM GUATEMALA AND 
HONDURAS ACROSS AND BEYOND CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO THE EASTERN 
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN GENERAL 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
FROM THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA FROM 70W EASTWARD. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN 
GUADELOUPE...0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.03 IN 
BERMUDA. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA  
8NS PANAMA ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND INTO 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA IS MIXED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT IS RELATED TO THE 
79W/80W TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA 
ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 
10N72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N SOUTHWARD 
BETWEEN 72W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW 
IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS 
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.A.-TO FLORIDA-AND GULF OF 
MEXICO TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM FROM A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SWATH OF 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM 
GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS ACROSS CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVING SITES THAT ARE 
AROUND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
WITH A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND 
WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CROSS THE 
AREA. 

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 19N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 14N40W 
AND 10N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 
10N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW...AND OUTSIDE THE PRECIPITATION OF THE ITCZ.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 33N15W...TO THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY 
ISLAND TO 23N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES 
32N14W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT 
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE 1033 MB HIGH CENTER TO 32N42W 26N50W AND 
21N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 60W...AND AWAY FROM THE 
20N55W 17N58W 14N61W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Nov-2014 11:19:40 UTC