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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062342
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING N FROM THE 
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH 
A COUPLE DO HUNDRED MILES E OF THE FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE ATLANTIC 
SECTION BELOW. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GRADUALLY MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM 
CHANCE OF FORMATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF 
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
COASTAL SE CONUS BEGINNING THU. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 15N17W ALONG 9N18W TO 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 3N30W 2N38W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N49W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N 
BETWEEN 16W-20W...FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 23W-30W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-35W...AND FROM 2N-4N W OF 48W TO INLAND 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N6W 
TO 4N11W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA 
COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FAR W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE 
ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS 
MEXICO TO OVER THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER E KENTUCKY INTO THE GULF OVER 
PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N91W. CONVERGENCE OF THE SE SURFACE 
FLOW AND THE NE FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 88W-92W. 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NESDIS HMS FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THE SW GULF IS COVERED LIGHT TO MEDIUM SMOKE MAINLY S 
OF 26N W OF 93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR 
WEATHER THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH TO WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE 
EVENINGS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDS INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO COSTA RICA/W PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE E 
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 83W. THE 
LEADING EDGE OF THIS LAYER COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF LINE FROM 20N83W TO OVER THE NE NICARAGUA/NE HONDURAS NEAR 
15N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S 
OF 11N W OF 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI THEN EXPAND 
WESTWARD FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...                                              
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE SAHARAN AIR 
LAYER WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH 
LATE THU ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS COULD 
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON HAITI THROUGH THU. MOISTURE 
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE THU/EARLY FRI BRINGING MORE SHOWERS 
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 78W. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E 
EXTENDS FROM 26N63W TO BEYOND 32N72W AND IS BEING AMPLIFIED THIS 
UPPER TROUGH. BENEATH IS THE SPECIAL FEATURES THAT CONSIST OF A 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 
28N79W TO 24N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N77W ACROSS 
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 32N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE ABOVE ACTIVITY TO INLAND 
OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND 
MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W 
AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW TO THE 1022 MB HIGH OVER E 
KENTUCKY AND SE TO 25N35W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W 
EXTENDING ALONG 23N33W TO 22N51W. THE W ATLC LOW IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH FRI...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO A 
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA 
LATE THU NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 06-May-2015 23:42:56 UTC