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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011729
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this 
evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic. 
Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of 
Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight, 
and early morning hours, starting this evening through Saturday 
night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of 
Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under 
AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 
10N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S30W to 
the coast of South America at 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is over a large area within 300 nm either side of the 
ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1032 mb high over the central Atlantic is producing ridging 
over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-20 kt SE winds are over the Gulf, 
with strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Radar imagery shows 
isolated showers over the Straits of Florida. Fair weather is 
over the remainder of the Gulf. A cold front is inland over SE 
Texas approaching the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level 
high is centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Most 
of the Gulf has SW upper level flow. Upper level moisture is 
over the N Gulf States, while strong subsidence is over the 
Gulf. Expect the cold front to reach the Texas coast this 
evening with convection, and 25 kt northerly winds behind the 
front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale to near gale winds are pulsing along the coast of N 
Colombia. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the 
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over N Venezuela, Windward 
Islands, Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 
Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Furthermore, scattered showers are now 
advecting over Central America from the Caribbean. In the upper 
levels, ridging is over the W Caribbean W of 70W, while the base 
of an upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Strong 
subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central America. 
Expect clusters of scattered showers to continue to move W over 
the Caribbean, within the tradewind flow, during the next 24-48 
hours. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the 
tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong 
subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are 
not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1032 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 
34N56W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N37W to 
24N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A 1023 
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N17W. Of note in the upper 
levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic 
N of 20N between 30W-65W. Expect over the next 24 hour for the 
cold front to move E to 31N31W with showers. Also expect another 
cold front to enter the W Atlantic on Thursday evening with 
convection. 

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Mar-2017 17:29:14 UTC