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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 210557
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS 
LOCATED NEAR 12N54W...IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
ALSO ATTACHED TO THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE 
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS 
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N22W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N53W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT 
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW 
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING 
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST 
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF 
20N. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 
9N38W TO 13N52W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION... 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 35W-
40W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 28N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING 
WATERS EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 83W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF TAMPICO 
MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
GULF NEAR 26N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS HIGH CENTER 
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NNW GULF FROM 
26N-28N BETWEEN 93W-96W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY 
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED 
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA AND NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA COAST...E OF COSTA RICA 
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJORITY 
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W 
THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW AND TROPICAL 
WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER E HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING 
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 
25N BETWEEN 78W-79W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 36N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 
30N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
24N67W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS 
MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Aug-2014 05:58:04 UTC