Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 200002

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
702 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


Strong high pressure building behind a cold front over the Gulf 
of Mexico is supporting frequent wind gusts to gale force S of 
23N W of the front. These winds are forecast to continue through 
Monday morning. Wave heights of 8 to 12 ft are expected associated
with these winds. See the latest high seas forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. 


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 
06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
06N20W to 05N40W to the South American coast near 08N60W. 
Scattered heavy showers and tstms are from 02N to 09N between 20W
and 43W.



A middle to upper level trough with axis over the E CONUS and base
over the NE Gulf supports a cold front extending from central
Florida near 27N82W to the central Gulf near 24N90W to the Bay of
Campeche near 19N96W. Near gale to gale force winds are in the SW
basin behind the front continuing through Monday morning. Please 
refer to the special features section for more details. Fresh to 
strong northerly winds are elsewhere N of the front while light to
gentle northerlies are ahead of the front in the SE basin. CIRA 
LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery continue to show deep layered 
dry air across most of the basin supporting clear skies. However,
shallow moisture support isolated showers within 45 nm either
side of the front. The front will move over south Florida tonight
through Monday morning then it will stall before dissipating
Tuesday. A surface trough, remnant of the front will develop a
center of low pressure that is forecast to move to the NE basin
Tuesday morning with showers.


CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery show deep layered dry 
air across the western Caribbean, which is supporting mainly clear
skies W of 76W. A 1008 mb low prevails SE of Jamaica near 16N75W
with associated trough extending ENE towards 17N67W. An upper 
level ridge covers the remainder half of the basin with
diffluent flow that continue to support scattered heavy showers 
and isolated tstms between 64W and 72W, including Puerto Rico and
extending E to the Virgin Islands. Scattered to isolated showers
are across Hispaniola and the Mona Passage associated with the
area of low pressure along with the upper level diffluent
environment. The center of low pressure is forecast to move over
the SW Caribbean where it will weaken into a surface trough Monday
night. A low or surface trough is forecast to develop across
Hispaniola supporting showers in the island and north-central
Caribbean waters through Tuesday.


Scattered to isolated showers prevail across the island and 
adjacent waters continuing through Monday night into Tuesday
morning. These showers will be associated with a new center of low
pressure or trough forecast to develop over the region Monday.


A cold front is moving across the far NW SW N Atlc waters
extending from 30N78W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NW winds are NW of the front. A 
1020 mb high centered near 33N56W dominates the remainder of the 
western Atlantic waters N of 23N W of 49W. In the central Atlc,
another cold front extends from 30N36W to 25N45W to 21N54W
supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 24N between
30W and 47W. A surface trough extends from the tail of this front
to N of Puerto Rico and support similar convection for the region
S of 22N between 57W and 68W. High pressure centered near 39N14W 
dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic.

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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Nov-2017 00:03:04 UTC