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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N
ATLC AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT WED NIGHT WHILE BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRES COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC WILL MOVE WEST. THIS SCENARIO WILL
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1028 MB HIGH
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY WED
NIGHT. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NE BASIN N OF 28N E OF
87W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA OF FREQUENT
GUST TO GALE FORCE WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE
BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES NE...THUS
REDUCING THE PRES GRADIENT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
16N82W...ACROSS HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS...ACROSS SOUTHERN BELIZE
TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO
NORTHERN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE
FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS
ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 18N. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE
AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND
WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...                                          

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER THE NW ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WED NIGHT. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO
21N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT
AND W OF FRONT TO 80W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 9 TO 15
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY WED
NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N62W TO 20N73W THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN BOTH BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN E OF 65W
ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WED NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS