Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231052

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


Hurricane Maria is centered near 24.8N 72.0W at 23/0900 UTC, or 
about 295 nm east of Nassau, moving north-northwest at 8 kt. 
Minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed 
is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is within 90 nm of the center, except within 120 nm in 
the south quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere 
from 21N-30N between 66W-75W. Maria is forecast to slowly decrease
in intensity during the next couple of days while it turns more 
northward. Please see the latest NHC Public Advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the complete NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC 
for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Lee is centered near 31.9N 49.2W at 23/0900 UTC, 
or about 791 nm east of Bermuda moving north at 5 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt 
with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm
in the north quadrant. Additional scattered moderate convection 
is located to the southeast of Lee from 24N-30N between 41W-52W 
associated with a middle to upper-level low. Lee forecast to turn 
to the northeast over the next couple of days. Please see the 
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for the complete details.


A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa with axis extending 
from 18N19W to 03N22W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Abundant 
moisture is present with the tropical wave axis as measured by 
SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N 
between 15W-25W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 18N52W to 06N53W, moving west at 10 kt. Plentiful moisture 
is present near the tropical wave axis as indicated by SSMI TPW 
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-20N between 


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
14N17W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 08N59W. Besides
the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, no 
activity is present along these boundaries at this time.



A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored over the
northeast CONUS. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate
east to southeast flow with mainly 1 to 3 ft seas across the Gulf
of Mexico. Isolated showers are observed over the eastern portion
of the basin supported by a middle to upper level trough extending
from an upper-level low centered over southwest Georgia. Little
change is expected through the next 24 hours.


A surface trough trails Hurricane Maria which is moving north-
northwest away from the north coast of Hispaniola. The trough
extends from 20N75W to 14N80W. Associated outer rainbands of 
Maria continue to induce scattered convection over Puerto Rico 
and Hispaniola although this activity should gradually diminish 
during the next couple of days as Maria continues to move away 
from the area. The remainder of the Caribbean is fairly tranquil 
with gentle to moderate winds west of the surface trough, and 
moderate to fresh easterly flow in the east Caribbean east of the 
trough. Aloft, a middle to upper-level trough extends across the 
northwest Caribbean with mainly dry and stable air, while upper 
anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere.


Outer rainbands associated with Hurricane Maria, which continues 
to move north-northwest away from the north coast of the island, 
continue to support scattered rainfall mainly over the far east 
portion of the island. Activity should gradually diminish during 
the next couple of days as Maria continues away from the area.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Lee. 

Otherwise, a surface trough is over the central portion of the
basin south of Lee from near 27N51W to 22N57W. Isolated showers
are observed along the trough. The remainder of the basin is 
under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1022 mb high
centered near 27N38W.

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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Sep-2017 10:53:21 UTC