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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062335
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST FRI MAR 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...                        
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GULF. GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE DISCONTINUED SAT MORNING 
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...                         
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA 
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. GALE CONDITIONS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 00N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 
15W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT AT 06/1800 UTC IS LOCATED ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN AND BECAME STATIONARY FROM 19N93W 
TO 24N88W TO 27N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE 
PROXIMITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE 
WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERS STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO KENTUCKY. A GENTLE TO MODERATE 
NORTHERLY FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF MAINLY N OF THE FRONT WHILE A SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW 
PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR 
THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY 
SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...  

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC COVERING THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC THROUGH THE W TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 
13N71W TO E COSTA RICA NEAR 14N84W. A VERY STABLE AIRMASS 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE SURFACE 
RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR 
MORE INFORMATION. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO BE 
TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO 
PREVAIL.  

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE STRONG 
TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS TREND 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC AS OF 06/1800 UTC. 
IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
GULF AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 28N80W TO 28N78W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS TO 31N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THESE 
BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 33N35W EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW S OF THE SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTS 
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N42W TO 20N43W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 
40W-45W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT 
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT 
WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Friday, 06-Mar-2015 23:35:09 UTC