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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 290555

205 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     
Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 31.5N 79.4W at 29/0600
UTC or about 90 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina and about
135 nm S of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving N at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 31N to 33N between 79W and 82W. See latest
NHC intermediate public advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
Tropical wave extends from 02N31W to 11N29W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W and 34W and
a maximum in 700 mb relative vorticity in the vicinity
ofthewaveaxis near 08N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 08N between 29W and 33W.

Tropical wave extends from 01N61W to 10N61W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 60W and
64W on the southern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge
anchored east of the Lesser Antilles near 14N60W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N
between 60W and 67W.

Tropical wave extends from 04N80W to 12N80W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing over the SW Caribbean
between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N
to 11N between 77W and 84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
06N17W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N17W to 05N30W to 02N38W
to02N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 13N
between 13W and 18W.


GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the
Florida panhandle near 31N86W SE to over the central Bahamas
near 24N76W with primarily NW flow prevailing over much of the
Gulf basin this evening. Water vapor imagery indicates fairly
dry and stable conditions aloft which is further supported by a
1018 mb high centered in the NE Gulf waters near 29N85W. Mostly
clear skies are noted on satellite imagery with a few isolated
showers and tstms occurring across eastern Mexico impacting the
waters S of 26N within 90 nm of the coast. Gentle to moderate E-
SE winds are expected through the overnight period into Sunday
and this synoptic pattern is expected through much of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the central Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow
influencing much of the basin W of 72W. Conditions W of 72W
remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers
occurring S-SW of Jamaica from 15N to 19N between 74W and 82W.
The presence of a tropical wave along 80W is also enhancing
scattered showers and tstms S of 12N W of 77W...including
inlandportions of Panama...Costa Rica...and Nicaragua. E of
72W...maximum middle to upper level diffluence is providing for
scattered showers and tstms E of 67W. The upper level trough
will gradually lift N of 20N by Monday...however upper level
troughing will persist across the SW North Atlc off the coast of
Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E
of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin
Islands through Tuesday. This will result is increased
probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week
across the north-central and NE Caribbean.

Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the island and
adjacent coastal waters this evening due to a middle to upper
level diffluent environment over the island on the southern
periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to
the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly
however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week
providing higher probability for precipitation and convection
through the weekend into the first half of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
Tropical Storm Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SW
North Atlc waters this evening as it tracks towards the South
Carolina coast. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc
is under the influence of a relatively diffluent environment
aloft due to a middle to upper level trough axis extending
fromover the Florida panhandle to the central Bahamas. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are occurring from 19N to 28N between
68W and 75W. The upper level troughing is expected to persist
off the coast of Florida through Tuesday. Farther east...a trio
of high centers influence the central and eastern
Atlc...a1026mbhigh centered near 28N31W...a 1025 mb
highcenterednear 28N48W and a 1026 mb high centered near34N62W.
Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 55W.

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