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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272336
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
736 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N33W to
07N33W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 09N-12N between 32W-38W. Satellite imagery shows 
Saharan dust in the northern portion of the wave wrapping into the
northern side of an elongated circulation, currently centered 
east of the wave's axis near 12N31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N43W to
04N44W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this tropical wave other than a few showers where 
it intersects the monsoon trough near 09N44W. This is due in part
to remnant dry Saharan air with the tropical wave, but also due 
to subsident dry air in northerly flow aloft.

A tropical wave extends its axis across the Lesser Antilles from
22N61W to 11N61W, moving west at 15-20 kt. The northern portion of
the wave is interacting with an upper-level low centered near 
26N58W. The only convection is noted closer to the upper low
mainly north of 20N.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends south of Hispaniola with axis
from 18N73W to 07N73W,moving west at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is 
moving toward an upper-level low centered over central Cuba, and 
will start interacting with it through tonight, complicating 
precise position analysis. No significant convection is associated
to the tropical wave at this time, but its presence has allowed 
the pressure gradient to relax and subsequently diminished the 
area of strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. This wave
will move across the western Caribbean on Friday through 
Saturday.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 16N17W to a 1012 surface low
near 12N30W to 09N46W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
08N60W. No significant convection is noted other than what was 
already mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak ridging extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high
centered near 28N93W. A 1014 mb surface low was analyzed over
northern Florida near 30N83W with a trough extending to 28N87W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed along and in the
vicinity of the low/trough affecting the Florida Peninsula and
adjacent waters east of 86W. over the Big Bend area this morning.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms is observed off Veracruz
in the southwest Gulf attributed to divergent flow aloft between 
an upper-level low over central Cuba and an upper-level 
anticyclone farther north. The light to gentle winds across the 
region are maintaining slight seas overall. Little change is 
expected through Saturday for the majority of the Gulf. On 
Saturday, a weak front is forecast to drop south over the 
southeastern United States to near the Florida panhandle by late 
Saturday may bring an increase of moisture along with an increase 
in shower and thunderstorm activity to the NE Gulf at that time.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
continue over the western Caribbean west of 73W on the periphery 
of an upper-level low centered over central Cuba. Most of the 
activity is affecting land areas over Cuba, Central America and
western Hispaniola. Ridging north of the area continues to 
support fresh to locally strong trade across the Caribbean to the 
S of 17N and E of 82W, with the strongest winds along the coasts 
of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Daytime heating is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms
starting to form over the higher terrain of the island, on the 
eastern edge of an upper-level low centered over central Cuba.  
Moisture is expected to decrease on Friday, then increase on 
Saturday as a tropical wave passes through the central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low centered near 26N58W. This low is reflected at
the surface as a trough that extends from 28N57W to 24N59W.
Isolated showers are noted along the trough. The upper-level low 
centered over Cuba is also enhancing convection across the western
Atlantic, mainly over the Bahamas area. Weak surface ridging 
along 28N is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas. 
Farther east, high pressure over the central Atlantic is 
maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds, with Saharan dust 
dominating east of 40W.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA