000
AXNT20 KNHC 240908
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A 1010 mb low pressure near
26N35W will slowly drift southwestward through Thu, opening up to
a trough Fri. A large area of fresh to near gale-force NE winds
has generated large seas with heights of 12 to 13 ft N of 25N 
between 35W and 42W. Seas of 8 ft or greater cover the waters N of
22N between 30W and 46W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
possible within 30 nm of the low center per recent satellite 
imagery. Peak seas will subside to less than 12 ft through this 
evening as the low weakens and gradually opens up to a trough. 
Meanwhile, winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by Thu evening. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 27N61W to
western side of Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow
across Hispaniola. Together with a pronounced mid to upper-level
trough in the vicinity, strong thunderstorms are likely during the
afternoon and early evening hours over and near Hispaniola today
and Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy
downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially in
hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer to local weather
service offices for more details on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W extending 
southwestward to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 
02S21W to 00N36W to just NE of the coast of Brazil near 00N44W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to
07N between 15W and 23W, and from 00N to 03N between 28W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from E to W just N of the basin across the
southeastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate E to SE
winds prevail across the basin, locally fresh W of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the NE half of the basin, and
3 to 5 ft across the SW half of the basin, up to 6 ft near the
Straits of Florida where hazardous conditions are possible.

For the forecast, high pressure just N of the basin will 
support mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the NE half of the 
Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the SW half of the Gulf 
through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf 
starting Thu night, increasing E to SE winds to fresh to strong 
across the whole basin through Sun night. Meanwhile, winds will 
pulse to fresh to strong W of the Yucatan each evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about strong 
thunderstorms and the potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

Gentle to moderate trades are N of 15N, except fresh near the 
Windward Passage and in the Lee of Cuba, with moderate to fresh 
trades S of 15N, locally strong near Colombia. Seas are 2 to 5 ft
across the basin, locally 6 ft in the S-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure will build N of the area 
supporting fresh to locally strong winds just N of Colombia, 
through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba today through
Thu. Looking ahead, further building of the high on starting on 
Fri will also force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras
and just S of Hispaniola through the weekend. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about Significant Swell
in the Central Atlantic, and about strong thunderstorms and
potential for heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 23N72W. High pressure, 1021
mb, is centered W of the front near 30N79W. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail W of the front, except light to gentle near the high
center. Seas are elevated W of the front, 6 to 9 ft in northerly
swell. Away from the low discussed above, moderate to fresh trades
prevail E of the front to 40W, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. Gentle
to moderate winds are E of 40W away from the low, except moderate
to fresh N of 20N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Seas are 3
to 6 ft away from the low.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from 31N59W to
the Turks and Caicos Islands this evening where it will stall and
dissipate to a remnant trough. Associated northerly swell of 8 ft
or greater will subside by this evening. Fairly tranquil 
conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, a new 
cold front will merge with the trough and progress eastward, 
reaching 31N57W to E Cuba on Sat morning, and then 25N55W to 
Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push S of 31N with the 
front, resulting in building seas. A strengthening Bermuda High 
should cause widespread fresh to strong N to E winds W of the 
front beginning Fri evening through Sun evening.

$$
Lewitsky