Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 040000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT SUN MAY 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 
03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
03N16W TO 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 
11N E OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S TO 05N W 
OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA SW ALONG THE SE CONUS 
INTO THE GULF WITH A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA 
ADJACENT WATERS NEAR 32N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TO A BASE 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORT A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE 
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N86W TO 23N84W. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TAIL OF THE TROUGH AND FORCING BY 
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AS DEPICTED BY WATER 
VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WINDS 
ACROSS THE BASIN ARE MAINLY FROM THE E-SE IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 
15 KT...EXCEPT SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS 
WHERE WINDS CAN REACH A MAXIMUM OF 20 KT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN GULF WATERS MONDAY 
WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD 
OVER THE WESTERN BASIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N54W SW TO 25N64W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. THE BASE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM WEST VIRGINIA AND 
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE GENERATING 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH ALONG WITH 
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE S 
OF 18N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ENTERING THE FAR 
EASTERN BASIN...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES AND OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. AN 
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS IS ENHANCING 
SHOWERS OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. THE 
REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 10 
TO 15 KT ARE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT...INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA. NORTHERLY WIND OF 10 KT DOMINATE OVER THE NW BASIN WEST 
OF THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL 
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO EASTERN CUBA AND THEN DISSIPATING 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS ACROSS HAITI AND 
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE AND THE REGIONS AFOREMENTIONED. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT 
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LEAVING A SURFACE 
TROUGH TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. THE 
PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF EASTERN CUBA WILL START TO DISSIPATE 
MONDAY MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY 
MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLAND AND 
ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N54W SW TO 25N64W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. THE BASE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM WEST VIRGINIA 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ARE GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE SW N ATLC...WHICH ALONG WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 360 NM W OF THE 
FRONT...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM WHICH A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N27W TO 
28N35W TO 29N39W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE 
REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE BEING 
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 25N49W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WILL START TO WEAKEN OVER THE SW N 
ATLC BY MONDAY MORNING...LEAVING AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING 
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 04-May-2015 00:01:08 UTC