Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT 
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE 
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE 
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 14N23W MOVING W AT 
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT 
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT. SSMI 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE TO BE S OF 21N. 
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AT 12N53W IS EMBEDDED ON THE BASE OF 
THIS TROPICAL WAVE. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO 
13N24W TO 8N30W TO 14N46W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N53W TO THE COAST 
OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN 
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 
33W-38W...FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 44W-49W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 
58W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W. AIRMASS SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 24N97W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
88W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA...S NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 
77W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N91W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW 
AND TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

CURRENTLY...EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO PEAK 
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W 
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 
77W-80W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
36N24W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 
64W-69W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO 
BE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ FORMOSA



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Aug-2014 23:48:20 UTC