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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 241806
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ON SATURDAY OCT 25 AT 0000 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO EXTEND ALONG 31N60W TO 28N69W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRES CENTER 
NEAR 25N79W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 23N81W. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW WITH  
SEAS TO 11 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
1200 UTC SATURDAY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 14N35W TO 4N36W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
DEPICT A BULGE OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE 
AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THIS 
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N 
BETWEEN THE TWO WAVE AXES AND WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE CURRENT 
WAVE OF DISCUSSION. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
14N46W TO 7N46W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT 
MODERATE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 260 NM S OF 13N. A BULGE OF 
MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE AXIS OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THIS MOISTURE 
EXTENDS TO THE UPPER LEVELS WHERE A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT 
SUSTAINS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN THE 
TWO WAVE AXES.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N65W TO 10N67W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE WAVE 
AS WELL AS IN THE IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT S OF 13N. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
WAVE AXIS. ELSEWHERE STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF 
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 8N32W. THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N32W TO 7N36W AND 7N43W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 
17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 
45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA 
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN. 
THIS TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE 
FAR SE GULF ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 
21N88W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL 
SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE SW N ATLC...HOWEVER 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE 
FRONT...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS...A 
1021 MB HIGH OVER SW ARKANSAS AND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN 
OHIO. AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT INFLUENCED BY STRONG DEEP 
LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE FAVOR FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SURFACE RIDGE IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
GENERATING GALE-FORCE WINDS ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF 
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN. 
THE TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 17N W OF 77W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AND 
WESTERN CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WITH AXIS 
ALONG 66W...SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHERWISE DEEP LAYER 
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. 
VARIABLE WINDS OF 10-15 DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN TO 
DISSIPATE ALONG EASTERN CUBA MONDAY MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...                                                  

CURRENTLY A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND ENCOMPASSED BY 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MIDDLE TO LOW LEVELS DRY AIR 
SUSTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHEN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL 
WAVE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED OVER THE SW N ATLC. 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N62W 
SW TO A 1010 MB LOW W OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N79W TO NORTHERN 
CUBA NEAR 23N81W. FROM THAT POINT A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. A GALE IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AT 0000 UTC 
SATURDAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 18:06:38 UTC