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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 200547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SUN MORNING ON THE 
SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE 
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
SUBSIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE 
ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 2N27W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS WELL AS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
DOMINATES THE GULF E OF 90W. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE 
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N93W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM 
CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF 95W. WHILE 
IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E OF 88W. 
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUE 
MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER 
THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE 
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC 
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. 
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO N OF CUBA. 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOS PRES NEAR 
31N79W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE 
OF TSTMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 26N BETWEEN 76 AND 77W.  
BOTH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND SUBSIDE 
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE 
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE 
RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING 
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS



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Page last modified: Sunday, 20-Apr-2014 05:47:35 UTC