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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 070601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS 
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 56W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN 
DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS 
HINDERING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS 
APPROXIMATELY NEAR 68W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN WAVE 
ENVIRONMENT. BOTH THE DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR 
HINDER CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
09N27W TO 07N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 06N46W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 
04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-12N E OF 30W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 33W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

THE GULF BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF AND FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN 
TO THE WESTERN BASIN. MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN BASIN ALONG WITH 
LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS E OF 84W. STRONG DEEP LATER WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION 
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND 
RIDGING HOLD ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 27N85W. N TO NE 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W 
WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL 
PERSIST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                        

SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS GREAT 
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO AND HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING 
REPORTED. THE IMAGERY SHOW A MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 
68W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS 
ALOFT...SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
ONLY OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...PANAMA...SOUTHERN 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS 
S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FROM 
10.5N TO 15N W OF 70W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 13 FT. E WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE FROM 15N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W WITH SEAS TO 
8 FT. WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 17.5N BETWEEN 
70W AND 80W WITH SEAS FROM 8 TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. THE AREA 
OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 68W-82W 
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...                                    

A PATCH OF MOIST AIR MOVED FROM INLAND HISPANIOLA TO THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS OVER HAITI SW ADJACENT WATERS AND JAMAICA. SAHARAN DRY AIR 
AND DUST HAS MOVED INTO THE ISLAND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
ACROSS THROUGH WED...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BUT HAZY 
CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N70W ALONG 
WITH A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. SIMILAR WEATHER IS 
BETWEEN THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS...BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N37W AND A 1025 MB 
HIGH NEAR 31N63W. HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT 
FEATURE THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION...SEE 
SECTION ABOVE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Jul-2015 06:02:06 UTC