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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 
22N17W TO 13N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON 
THE WAVE AXIS AT 19N18W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-21N MAINLY E OF 17W. 
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
19N39W TO 10N42W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE CONVECTION IN THE 
VICINITY OF THIS WAVE IS MAINLY INDUCED BY THE MONSOON 
TROUGH...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N51W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THIS WAVE ALSO ASIDE FROM THE ONE ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N77W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. A 1008 
MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N81W. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF EASTERN CUBA FROM 13N-20N 
BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
REMAINS W OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
08N22W TO 10N46W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO THE COASTAL 
WATERS OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 24W-43W ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N-13N 
BETWEEN 47W-55W WHILE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN 
W OF 53W BETWEEN 10N-13N. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 27N97W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 87W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
GULF WATERS LATER THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF...ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 23N96W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N86W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 
28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF EASTERN CUBA  
IS DOMINATING THE WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE 
ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS 
THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N69W AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 15N78W WHILE 
ANOTHER ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS SE PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N75W. THE 
INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE 
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL 
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

TWO CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. THE 
STRONGEST ONE IS LOCATED OVER NW HAITI FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 72W-
74W. THE OTHER ONE IS OVER S DOMINICAN REPUBLIC W OF 70W... 
BETWEEN 17N-19N. ASIDE FROM THAT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...              

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N67W TO 29N78W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 75W-79W.    
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N69W WITH 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 23:45:59 UTC