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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272334
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE 
SW GULF BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT S OF 20N W OF 95W. GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 0600 UTC SAT. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO  
0N15W TO 3S21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 3S21W TO 4S33W TO 1S40W TO 
THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-7S BETWEEN 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

AS OF 2100 UTC A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 
27N87W. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING 
FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N81W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W TO S 
MEXICO AT 17N94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 20N 
W OF 95W. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 
FRONT. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM S 
FLORIDA AT 26N81W TO THE SE GULF AT 25N84W. PRESENTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 
80W-86W TO INCLUDE S FLORIDA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85W-87W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE  GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW 
GULF. EXPECT IN 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WIND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS S OF CUBA.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS 
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... GUATEMALA...BELIZE...W HONDURAS 
...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH 
AXIS ALONG 71W. UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO BE OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO 
REACH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HAITI IN 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF 
THE COLD FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S SOUTH CAROLINA AT 33N81W. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-
32N W OF 75W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N48W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 31N35W TO 25N40W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 39N15W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E 
OF 30W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W 
ATLANTIC FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N78W 
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N39W TO 29N36W TO 21N40W WITH SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Mar-2015 23:34:30 UTC