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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 201800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N77W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N74W AND 22.5N78W. EXPECT NORTH 
WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...AND 
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 20 NM AND 
60 NM OF SHORE. EXPECT ALSO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST 
OF THE FRONT TO 70W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 14N16W...CURVING TO 13N19W AND 7N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 7N21W TO 3N23W...CURVING TO 1N29W 1N36W...AND TO THE  
EQUATOR AT 40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 
2N TO 3S BETWEEN 32W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 1W...FROM 2S 
TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W...AND FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 45W AND 
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE CURVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...PARALLELING THE COAST MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND CONTINUING 
BEYOND THE BORDER OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING 
REPORTED. 

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM 
CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE 
AREA OF PALACIOS...PORT LAVACA...AND VICTORIA. MOSTLY SCATTERED 
AND SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN 
AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY 
WESTWARD...TO BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND 
SURROUNDING CITIES...AND FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES. A LOW LEVEL 
CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER THE NAVAL AIR 
STATION IN KEY WEST. OTHER LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 88W. 

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 
NICARAGUA...AND TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 79W... 
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO 
THE EAST OF 64W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.15 AT 
MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.10 AT KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.12 IN 
ST. THOMAS...AND 0.01 AT SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... 
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...EXCEPT 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 
74W AND 78W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO 
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE 
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.  

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 
NICARAGUA...AND TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...CUMULONIMBUS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD 
CEILING...COVER BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN 
SANTO DOMINGO SINCE 20/0928 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN WAS FALLING IN LA ROMANA AT 20/1400 
UTC. FEW LOW CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST 
PERIOD. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXIST FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 
NICARAGUA...AND TO GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 
MB SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF 
HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE 
FIRST 24 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND 24 HOURS AND OPEN ITSELF INTO 
A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WEST TO 
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. A WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...GIVING WESTERLY WIND FLOW.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N76W. THIS IS THE SAME 
CYCLONIC CENTER THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT LEAST 24 TO 36 
HOURS AGO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA 
NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. THE TROUGH AND 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORT A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N77W...AND THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE 1010 MB LOW CENTER...THROUGH 32N74W TO 30N74W...TO 
ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W...TO CUBA NEAR 
23N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 
21N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 
28N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W...AND IN THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE 
NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.  

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 3.70 AT NASSAU 
IN THE BAHAMAS. 

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 26N30W...TO AN 19N48W...TO 20N60W.  

A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 68W. 

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 
10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 24N71W 24N67W 16N50W 16N35W. 
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IS INCLUDED 
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Sunday, 20-Apr-2014 18:00:19 UTC