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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 161036
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 30.2N 57.3W AT 16/0900Z UTC 
OR ABOUT 405 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 55W-62W. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N27W TO A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH NEAR 13N27W TO 9N27W. THE APPROXIMATELY WESTWARD 
TRANSLATION SPEED OF THE WAVE IS 15-20 KT. A SIGNIFICANT 
REDUCTION OF MOISTURE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS IS NOTED IN THE 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY...WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL 
SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT LACK OF 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
20N48W TO 10N49W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. INTRUSION OF SAHARAN 
DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM KEEP IT MAINLY CONVECTIVE FREE EXCEPT IN 
THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHERE A REGION OF DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE COINCIDES WITH A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT 
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 16N-21N 
BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 
A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N27W TO 12N38W 10N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 10N45W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. BESIDES 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N E OF 21W...AND FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 25W-
41W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

OVERALL INSTABILITY CONTINUES ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF THE BASIN 
DUE TO DEEP LAYER TROUGHINESS IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED TROUGH 
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
27N96W TO 18N94W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
AND TSTMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN SUPPORTING A 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E-NE BASIN THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB 
HIGH ON THE SW N ATLC NEAR 29N75W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 110 NM 
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE EAST OF 93W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
IS ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N81W 
SW TO 30N85W TO 28N92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL ON THE 
WESTERN BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE FORMER STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN STATES WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE 
ACROSS FLORIDA THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION IS SUPPORTING 
TRADES OF 10-15 KT. EXCEPT FOR THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN WHERE 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAIL SUPPORTING 
CONVECTION...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR 
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THUS SUPPORTING 
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE NW BASIN FROM 
15N-21N BETWEEN W OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 76W. THE NEXT TROPICAL 
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE REGION ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COASTAL 
WATERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. BESIDES 
THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS INDUCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...NO 
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES 
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTIONS ABOVE. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO EXTENDS NE INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A 1018 MB 
HIGH NEAR 29N75W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE 
EASTERN ATLC SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N16W 
SW TO 27N25W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 10:36:21 UTC