Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 222349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


A tropical wave extends from 20N16W to 09N20W moving west at 
10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 
10W-22W. A 1008 mb broad surface low is centered near 16N20W. 
Isolated showers are observed inland to the east of the wave's 

A tropical wave extends from 15N40W to a 1011 mb surface low near
09N42W to 06N41W, moving west at 10-15 kt. A broad 700 mb 
troughing is noted between 40W- 48W with 850 mb relative vorticity
coinciding with the surface low circulation. Isolated moderate 
convection is from 00N- 10N between 40W-49W. 

A tropical wave extends from 13N58W to 04N60W moving west at 
10-15 kt. The wave is moving within the southern periphery of a 
700 mb low centered E of the Lesser Antilles near 13N60W. Subtle 
and broad low to middle level troughing is noted between 56W-65W 
with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity occurring across 
portions of Guyana. Isolated moderate convection is south of 08N
between 58W-61W.  

A tropical wave extends from 20N82W to 10N84W moving west at 
15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 
77W and is within the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge 
anchored over the west Atlantic. The wave is also moving within 
the influence of an upper-level low centered over the western 
Caribbean Sea near 16N85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
13N-20N between 78W-82W while isolated showers prevail along the
remainder of the wave. This convection is more closely related to
the upper-level dynamics in place over the region.


The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N21W to 06N26W. The 
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N26W to 07N40W then
resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N45W to 05N52W. Aside from
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers
are near the ITCZ between 47W-54W.



Tropical Depression Cindy is moving inland across eastern Texas
and will continue moving northeast across the States. The eastern
portion of a surface trough extends across eastern Mexico and the
western Gulf mainly west of 92W. A surface ridge extends across 
the eastern portion of the basin mainly east of 89W from the 
Atlantic. A line of isolated showers prevails along 90W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds across the
basin. During the next 24-48 hours, a tropical wave will approach
the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula. With this and the support of 
an upper-level low currently over the western Caribbean, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over this area.


An upper-level low is centered across the western Caribbean near 
16N84W supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much
of Central America and the Caribbean waters generally west of 77W. 
The presence of a tropical wave along 84W and the Monsoon Trough 
axis along 10N across Costa Rica are also providing additional 
focus for this convective activity. The upper-level low is 
expected to move northwest toward the southwest Gulf of Mexico by 
Saturday with the tropical wave moving westward into the East 
Pacific waters during the weekend. Increased probability of 
convection and precipitation is expected across Central America 
and southern Mexico through this period. The remainder of the 
basin is under the influence of moderate to fresh trades.


Mostly clear skies prevail currently across the island as surface
ridging to the north across the west Atlantic remains in place 
providing mostly fair weather conditions. In addition, an upper- 
level anticyclone centered over the island is continuing to 
provide an environment of overall subsidence.


An upper-level anticyclonic circulation is centered offshore of 
NE Florida and the Georgia coast near 31N80W that continues to 
support a 1022 mb high centered southwest of Bermuda near 30N66W.
Gentle to moderate winds are prevailing within the southern 
periphery of the ridging. Occasional fresh easterly winds were 
captured by scatterometer earlier today south of 21N between 71W-
74W...impacting the approach to the Windward Passage and along 
the northern coast of Hispaniola. Otherwise...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of surface 
ridging anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N48W. Water 
vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper-level low is centered 
near 29N53W and is inducing a weak 1018 mb low centered near 
25N54W and surface troughing extending northeast of the low to 
28N53W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the

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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jun-2017 23:49:44 UTC