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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
21N29W TO 11N31W MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
ALONG WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ENHANCE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 30W-35W. NO CONVECTION IS 
ELSEWHERE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE MOSTLY N OF THE 
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N41W TO 11N43W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN 
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N66W TO 10N69W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N SUPPORTING WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 63W-73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 22N82W TO 10N84W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. A 700 MB TROUGH 
AXIS IS JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 81W-86W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 
10N20W TO 9N30W TO 10N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
9N-13N BETWEEN 12W-20W...FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 27W-33W...AND FROM 
8N-14N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1009 MB LOW 
OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 91W-97W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N89W TO 
18N92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-24N 
BETWEEN 88W-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 
25N81W TO 25N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM   
23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N MEXICO NEAR 23N99W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
NEAR 30N85W. A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO OVER THE 
NW GULF NEAR 27N97W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF 
THE GULF.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE 
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 73W-80W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W 
...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO 
ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

PRESENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND WITH CONVECTION 
S OF THE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH 
STRONGEST CONVECTION OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 
75W-80W. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
FROM 31N68W TO 29N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 68W-74W. A 1022MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N64W WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 35N45W WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 17:48:33 UTC