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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211118
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO 
07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 18W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
29N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE 
EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING 
THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED 
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A NORTHERLY MODERATE 
BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EASTERLY SLIGHT BREEZE 
IS OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E 
PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO 
19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-
87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING WSW FLOW 
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW 
TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT 
DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY 
ENHANCING CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W 
CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A 
GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN 
EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING. SHALLOW 
MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A 
WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...                   

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N64W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE 
E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE 
LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 31N41W TO 20N41W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 22N BETWEEN 36W-
47W. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 
41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO 
TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION AND FOR ITS 
STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WEAKENING BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Dec-2014 11:19:02 UTC