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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01N35W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
00N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-02N BETWEEN 29W-
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS RIDGE COVERS 
THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 
HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 33N82W AND 44N75W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND 
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR 
WEATHER. SLIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY 
E OF 90W WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SE WINDS W OF 90W. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. A 
NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N73W TO 10N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHT TO GENTLE  
NORTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE GENTLE 
TRADES DOMINATE THE AREA E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO 
RICO AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
DAY.

...HISPANIOLA... 

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED 
CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 
PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
21N77W TO 35N63W. THE SECOND ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 36N56W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT  
MAINLY N OF 21N BETWEEN 55W-69W. TO THE E...THE REFLECTION OF AN 
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 25N39W TO 21N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-
24N BETWEEN 34W-38W. SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER 
ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 
39N29W. A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN 
EXCEPT IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC...WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE FROM 
20N-28N BETWEEN 34W-40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY 
FRONT THIS MORNING ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 40W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jan-2015 10:50:37 UTC