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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS NEAR 22.0N 97.3W AT 
03/0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO 
MEXICO. DOLLY IS MOVING WEST OR 270 DEGREES 10 KNOTS. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. PLEASE READ 
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/ FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM 
DOLLY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 
24N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. THE FORECAST IS 
FOR DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA 
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF TONIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 
TOMORROW MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N31W TO 13N32W TO 
9N33W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 400 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY 
BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N50W 10N52W. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ALSO. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N65W...PASSING JUST TO 
THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO 15N66W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA 
NEAR 10N66W.  CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE AREA OF 15N67W NORTHWARD 
TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS 
OF TODAY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 22N76W... 
ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 10N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS... 
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 32N66W-24N77W-SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
IT IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN WHICH OF THE FEATURES BETWEEN THE 
TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVES IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE 
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA FROM 79W 
EASTWARD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA AND 
HONDURAS...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W 
WESTWARD INCLUDING ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL 
NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N25W TO 5N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N34W 
TO 7N42W TO 10N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG 
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE...ESPECIALLY 
FOR THE AREA THAT IS FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD... IN 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF 
THE REST OF THE AREA...THANKS TO A 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN NEAR 32N71W...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 
30N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.  

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING 
SITES...KVAF AND KVQT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. 
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED 
IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST 
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING 
REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN 
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
FLORIDA...IN TALLAHASSEE...IN PERRY...AND IN SARASOTA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 65W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 24N77W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
02/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.48 IN 
MERIDA IN MEXICO...0.34 IN TRINIDAD...0.24 IN FREEPORT IN THE 
BAHAMAS...0.20 IN GUADELOUPE...0.18 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO 
RICO... AND 0.10 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 8N82W IN 
PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA AND IN COSTA RICA 
BETWEEN 80W AND 86W...IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 10N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN THE BORDER WITH VENEZUELA AND 76W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS...FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION...COVER 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N 
SOUTHWARD FROM 74W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 
TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS... 
ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...ACROSS FLORIDA...AND INCLUDING THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N66W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 32N71W TO A 24N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER AND 
TROUGH...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 69W WESTWARD...IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W EASTWARD...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 
65W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA 
FROM 79W EASTWARD...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN NICARAGUA 
AND HONDURAS...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 65W 
WESTWARD INCLUDING ACROSS SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO 
RICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
FROM 88W EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS 
CLOUDS AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW 
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH 
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED 
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS... 
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE 
IN THE MIDDLE OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST 
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY 
WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND THE RIDGE WILL PUSH WESTWARD... 
ENCOMPASSING HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS 
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE RIDGE 

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 38N31W...TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 
32N ALSO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N55W 27N40W 28N30W 30N20W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 
27N30W 27N44W...TO BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR 26N52W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 30N
BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N41W...TO A 1024 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 
30N77W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 03-Sep-2014 00:05:16 UTC