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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281723
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE VERIFIED BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. EXPECT WINDS TO 
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N29W TO 13N34W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH BROAD AND VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 
26W-32W WITH 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED NEAR THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE WAVE AT 
THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N48W TO 09N50W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES 
WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 48W-55W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AT THIS TIME DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF 
SAHARAN DUST PREVAILING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N71W TO 08N74W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS 
WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-80W WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO SAHARAN DUST 
PREVAILING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N85W INTO THE EPAC NEAR 10N87W. THIS WAVE IS 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS OBSERVED 
BETWEEN 80W-88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 
18N AND W OF 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
16N17W TO 11N28W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N31W 
TO 10N41W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
THAT POINT TO 10N49 THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 
09N51W TO 07N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N 
AND W 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NE TEXAS 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE THAT 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS W REACHING THE E GULF 
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N83W. TO THE 
N...A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS 
CENTERED NEAR 29N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO 27N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW/TROUGH MAINLY N OF 25N AND E OF 88W. 
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE 
BASIN BECOMING VARIABLE NEAR THE CONVECTION OVER THE NE PORTION. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF TO 
MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH 
CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN A SAHARAN AIRMASS 
PREVAILS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR DOMINATES THE AREA. 
ASIDE FROM THE ISOLATED CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE FAR W 
CARIBBEAN RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE...A SMALL AREA WITH A FEW 
SHOWERS IS OBSERVED NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N64W. A GALE 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 
COLOMBIA. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM 33N67W TO 31N80W. WITH 
THIS...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN 
THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W-79W. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 77W-80W. TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 
SURFACE HIGHS...ONE NEAR 26N60W AND THE OTHER NEAR 35N30W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jul-2015 17:23:42 UTC