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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 31.8W AT 02/2100 UTC 
OR ABOUT 512 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. A CLUSTER OF  
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
17N45W TO 08N46W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10-15 KT. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH S OF 10N BETWEEN 44W-48W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N76W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE 
COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 70W-
80W. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTED BY 
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF 15N AND W OF 79W AND THE PROXIMITY 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF 10N. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
13N17W TO 06N51W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 10N72W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 22W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 
27N95W. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS PROVIDING MUCH OF 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT MAINLY W OF 93W. TO THE SE...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N83W. THE UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THESE 2 FEATURES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINLY N OF 24N.  
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 26N98W TO 
29N89W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE ATLANTIC W REACHING THE GULF WATERS. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THEREFORE 
A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N81W AND EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
PREVAILS S OF 15N IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. 
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES 
MOSTLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE 
CONTENT. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES 
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-76W 
WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE REPORTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. BOTH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING W 
SUPPORTING CONVECTION. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND 
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS IS 
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED NW FLORIDA 
AND EXTENDING E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH 65W. AT THE 
SURFACE...A PAIR OF 1019 MB AND 1018 MB SURFACE HIGHS PREVAIL 
NEAR 27N77W AND 27N66W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
LOCATED NEAR 29N52W AND EXTENDING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM ITS 
CENTER TO 25N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 
THIS TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE AS WELL AS T.S. FRED ARE MOVING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT 
THESE FEATURES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTIONS ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 23:36:50 UTC