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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 262337
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF A FAST MOVING COLD 
FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE W ATLC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH TUE EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES E WHERE IT WILL 
MERGE WITH A FRONT CURRENTLY E OF THE STRONG FRONT. SEE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 5N18W TO 3N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 2N44W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 8W-21W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO 
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC SUPPORTING A FAST MOVING 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W ALONG 23N88W TO 23N96W. SOME 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER MEXICO TO THE PLAIN STATES ADVECTING 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF AS SEEN ON SATELLITE 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LEAVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF VOID OF ANY SHOWERS/CONVECTION THIS 
EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE W IN THE WAKE 
OF THIS FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. 
THIS FRONT WILL MOVER SE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE E GULF ON TUE PASSING SE OF THE 
AREA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE MEANDERS OVER THE 
W/CENTRAL AND W GULF THROUGH TUE. A SECOND RIDGE WILL BUILD IN 
SETTING UP FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND 
ON WED NIGHT THEN SHIFT SE TO A POSITION FROM THE FLORIDA BIG 
BEND TO THE SW GULF ON THU.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC 
ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO  
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM 
W OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
OVER COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND A SECOND NE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 
NICARAGUA LATE TUE THEN STALL FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA ON 
WED AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON THU. STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 
THU.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS 
EVENING W OF 70W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO 
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO 
INCREASE LATE TUE WITH APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL 
ENTER THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL 
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS STARTING ON LATE TUE THROUGH 
THU. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO 
OVER THE W ATLC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FAST 
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W 
ALONG 27N77W THEN ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N. A 
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE 
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W TO ALONG 31N64W TO 28N70W WHERE THE 
FRONT IS AGAIN COLD AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA 
ISLANDS TO ACROSS CUBA JUST E OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE ABOVE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NE OF AZORES. 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO 22N44W. THE REMNANT FRONT WILL MEANDER 
FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE FAST MOVING 
COLD FRONT IN THE FAR W ATLC ON TUE. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL THEN 
EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE TUE THEN SLOW 
FROM 32N60W TO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WED NIGHT WASHING OUT N OF 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Monday, 26-Jan-2015 23:37:12 UTC