Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 180003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to
07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
07N21W to 07N34W, then resumes west of a surface trough near
06N38W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N E
of 16W.



Stable conditions prevail basin-wide being supported by deep
layered dry air and a broad surface ridge anchored near West
Virginia that extends SSW into the Gulf. This ridge provides NE to
E light to moderate flow E of 90W and E to SE winds of the same
magnitude W of 90W. The next cold front is expected to emerge off
the Texas and Louisiana coasts by Saturday night followed by
strong to near-gale N-NE winds. Scattered to isolated showers are
expected in the vicinity of the front as it moves southeastward
through Monday.


A pair of lows prevail in the central Caribbean underneath a broad
upper level ridge covering the eastern half of the basin. The
northern low is 1008 mb and is located over S Haiti adjacent
waters near 17N73W. The second low is 1009 mb and is off the coast
of Colombia near 12N75W. Upper level diffluence between an upper
trough over the western basin and the ridge to the east supports
scattered showers and tstms N of 15N between 67W and 73W and S of
13N between 71W and 79W. Otherwise, moderate to occasional fresh 
northerly winds are noted across the western Caribbean waters 
generally W of 78W while ESE light to moderate wind flow is E of 
the the area of low pressure. The low is expected to remain 
nearly stationary S of Hispaniola and gradually dissipate by 


Scattered showers and tstms are across the eastern half of the
island while isolated showers are elsewhere. This activity is
being supported by an elongated area of low pressure in the
Central Caribbean extending beyond Hispaniola into the SW N Atlc
waters. Upper level diffluence supports this convection as well.
Similar shower activity will continue during the weekend into
Monday as the area of low pressure S of the island will stall
before dissipating early next week.


The SW North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively dry 
middle to upper level trough that supports a cold front N of the
area with tail dissipating along 30N66W to 27N72W. A middle level
trough and upper level diffluence supports scattered showers and
tstms N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico to 24N. North-northeast of
that area of convection, a stationary front extends from 30N40W to
27N50W to a 1009 mb low near 25N61W. Scattered showers are N of
the low between 50W and 65W. Surface ridging is elsewhere in the
central and eastern Atlc being anchored by a 1018 mb high near

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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Nov-2017 00:03:47 UTC