000
AXNT20 KNHC 181030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 01S17W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 02N and west of 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic dominates the Gulf
of Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds over the 
much of the basin, with the strongest winds occurring off NW 
Yucatan. Moderate seas are prevalent across the basin, except for 
slight seas in the NE Gulf. A few showers are affecting the NW 
Gulf waters and no deep convection is evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, the return flow across the northern Gulf is 
likely to lead to patchy areas of fog at night through Sat. Fresh 
to strong winds ENE winds will continue pulsing off the NW Yucatan
peninsula and south-central Gulf at night through Sat night. 
Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf 
Sun afternoon, reach from Tampa Bay to 25N90W to SW to 22N95W Mon 
morning and exit the basin Mon night. Moderate to fresh NE winds 
will follow the front, briefly reaching strong speeds over the NE 
Mexico offshore waters Sun evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic continues to force
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba,
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are
4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5
ft are evident in the south-central and SE Caribbean and remainder
of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent elsewhere in the basin. Pockets of low-level moisture 
are traveling across the Caribbean producing light, isolated
showers. The storm activity over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has
decreased.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will support fresh to 
locally strong easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba and 
Windward Passage at night during the next few days. These winds 
will gradually decrease this weekend into early next week as a 
cold front enters the western Atlantic waters and the pressure 
gradient relaxes. However, building ridge behind the front will 
support fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central 
Caribbean starting Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 29N54W to 19N59W and a 1013 mb
low pressure system is located along the trough near 22N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 24N and between
50W and the surface trough. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-10
ft are present from 22N to 28N and between 51W and 61W. The
remainder of the SW N Atlantic is dominated by a 1021 mb high
pressure system centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The
weak pressure gradient supports moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds south of 27N and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a 1022
mb high pressure system positioned near 31N44W. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 20N.
Wave heights are 6-9 ft in the area described. Slight to gentle
winds and moderate seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, winds and seas in the western Atlantic 
will diminish as the aforementioned low pressure moves east of the
area and the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, moderate 
to fresh southerly winds will develop over the Florida offshore 
waters N of Freeport late Sun ahead of a cold front forecast to 
move off NE Florida Sun night. These winds will reach strong 
speeds Sun night and diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Mon.

$$
Delgado