AXNT20 KNHC 250003 RRA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A 1011 mb low is centered over the eastern Tropical Atlantic
near 13N28W, moving west at 5 kt. The low is in a very moist
area as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. A 700
Mb low is also noted at the same location. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the center.
A tropical wave is over the western Tropical Atlantic with axis
from 20N51W to 10N51W, moving west at 25 kt. The wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water Imagery. No deep convection is
observed at this time as Saharan dust is located north of 15N.
A tropical wave is over the eastern Bay of Campeche with axis
from 21N91W to 10N92W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the wave axis over southern Mexico.
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W to the 1011 mb low at 13N28W to 08N34W to
08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N50W to the coast of
South America near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is
located from 07N-12N between 10W-28W, and from 04N-08N between
GULF OF MEXICO...
A tropical wave is over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Please
refer to the section above for details. Elsewhere, a 1014 mb low
is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28N88W drifting west.
Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the eastern
Gulf, Florida, W Cuba, and the N Yucatan Peninsula, from 20N-31N
east of 93W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered
over S Florida near 26N81W. Most of the convection over the Gulf
is being enhanced by upper level diffluence west of the upper
low center. Expect the upper level low to also move slowly west
over the next 24 hours with convection.
10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
winds over the central Caribbean S of 17N. Scattered moderate
convection is over the NW Caribbean and W Cuba N of 20N and W of
80W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Panama and
Costa Rica. In the upper levels, an inverted trough is over the
central Caribbean between 70W-80W. Upper level moisture is over
the NW Caribbean, while strong subsidence is elsewhere. Expect
the upper level trough to move west over the next 24 hours.
Also expect convection to increase over the SW Caribbean.
Generally, isolated showers are over the island at this time
under easterly flow. This pattern will prevail for the next 24
A surface low and a tropical wave is moving over the Atlantic.
Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered
moderate convection is over the N Bahamas N of 24N. A 1031 mb
high centered over the eastern Atlantic near the Azores at
40N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is
over the S Bahamas near 21N72W enhancing showers.
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