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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290541
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical is off the W coast of Africa with axis extending from 
15N17W to 04N17W, moving W at 10 kt. The 700 mb analysis shows a
good wave reflection. Although the wave is in a favorable wind 
shear environment, the CIRA LPW imagery shows shallow moisture 
with large patches of dry air, which in part hinders convection at
this time.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending 
from 09N31W to 00N32W, moving W at 10 kt. CIRA LPW imagery shows 
a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ with dry air in the 
Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good wave 
reflection. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 15N53W to 05N54W, moving W at 10-15 kt. CIRA LPW imagery 
shows a moderate moist environment near the ITCZ, with dry air in 
the Saharan Air Layer N of 10N. The 700 mb analysis shows a good 
wave reflection. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave 
axis.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis extending 
from 19N64W to 10N65W, moving W at 15 kt. Saharan dry air is 
present in the wave's environment inhibiting convection. There is 
a very pronounced 700 mb wave reflection.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 
04N19W to 04N30W...then resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N33W 
and continues to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 04N-08N between 25W-30W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low is centered over central Texas near 31N97W with an
associated cold front. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate to
strong convection over central and south Texas, and Louisiana.
Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is also over the NW Gulf
of Mexico from 27N-30N between 93W-95W. One to three NM visibility
with fog is also being reported over portions of the NW Gulf. 
Elsewhere, a 1017 mb high is located over the NE Gulf of Mexico 
near 27N84W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf. 
10-20 kt SE surface winds are over the W Gulf. Scattered showers 
are over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of 21N. In the upper 
levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level
moisture is over most of the Gulf, except over S Florida and the
SE Gulf where strong subsidence is noted. Expect the cold front to
reach the Texas coast today, 29/1200 UTC, with more showers and 
convection. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The monsoon 
trough extends over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered
moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Further N, 
scattered showers are inland over, Honduras,and Guatemala.  A 
surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 
17N91W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. 
In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean. An upper 
level trough is over the E Caribbean with strong subsidence. 
Expect over the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to move W with
showers. Also expect continued convection over the SW Caribbean, 
and Central America. 

HISPANIOLA...

Water vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the Island, 
hindering convection. However, patches of low level moisture, 
embedded in the trade wind flow, will produce isolated showers 
over the next 24 hours. The tropical wave will influence the
island on Tuesday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A large 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 
30N45W. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic just E of the
Canary Islands with scattered showers. Three tropical waves are 
over the tropical Atlantic. Please refer to the Tropical Waves 
section for more details. Saharan dry and dust is noted across 
much of the Atlantic Ocean N of 10N and E of 50W. Of note in the 
upper levels, an upper level trough is centered N of the Leeward
Islands producing upper level diffluence with scattered showers 
from 20N-24N between 55W-65W. Expect over the next 24 hours for 
more showers to be over the Atlantic in the vicinity of the
Leeward and Windward Islands.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa


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Page last modified: Monday, 29-May-2017 05:41:59 UTC