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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 301043

805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
-Tropical Depression Bonnie is centered near 33.0N 79.5W at
30/0900 UTC or about 25 nm ENE of Charleston South Carolina and
about 50 nm SW of Myrtle Beach South Carolina moving NE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 75 nm of center. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           
Tropical wave extends from 03N09W to 11N12W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 08W and
14W and 700 mb relative vorticity extending along the wave axis.
Active convection has occurred the past few evenings with the
wave...however only isolated moderate convection is occurring
from 02N to 08N between 09W and 15W west of the wave axis as it
moves off the coast of Africa this morning. 

Tropical wave extends from 05N30W to 11N23W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave is likely the result of slower energy associated with
the tropical wave to the west along 44W. This wave is noted in
700 mb global model fields to the west of a low to mid-level
easterly jet on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge
anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. No significant deep
convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this

Tropical wave extends from 03N44W to 10N42W moving W at 20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 40W and
50W on the far southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
anchored over the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is likely to
weaken during the next couple days as it approaches the South
American continent with any remaining energy merging with the
tropical wave to the east along 32W. No significant deep
convection is occurring in the vicinity of the wave at this time.

Tropical wave extends from 03N72W to 12N73W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains embedded within 700 mb troughing over
northeastern South America and portions of the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N
between 70W and 74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                       
-The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W
to 06N23W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06N23W to 02N50W. Isolated
moderate convection is from the Equator to 04N between 36W and


GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from over the SE
CONUS near the South Carolina coast S-SE to over the central
Bahamas near 23N77W with primarily W to NW flow prevailing over
much of the Gulf basin this morning. Water vapor imagery
indicates fairly dry and stable conditions aloft which is
further supported by a 1019 mb high centered in the north-
central Gulf waters near 29N89W. Mostly clear skies are noted on
satellite imagery with a few isolated showers occurring within
convective debris cloudiness across the western waters W of 92W.
Otherwise...gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are expected
through Tuesday and this synoptic pattern is expected through
much of next week as the ridge moves eastward gradually into the
NE Gulf waters by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over Cuba and the Windward Passage region
providing the NW Caribbean with primarily dry and stable NW flow
influencing much of the basin W of 78W. Conditions W of 78W
remain fairly tranquil with only a few isolated showers and
tstms occurring SW of Jamaica near 17N81W. E of 78W...maximum
middle to upper level diffluence associated with the troughing
over the SW North Atlc is providing for scattered showers and
tstms N of 15N between 68W and 79W. The upper level trough will
gradually lift N of 20N by Monday night...however upper level
troughing will persist over the SW North Atlc off the coast of
Florida with a relatively weak diffluent environment remaining E
of 75W across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin
Islands through Tuesday night. This will result in increased
probabilities of precipitation through the middle of next week
across the north-central and NE Caribbean.

Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the adjacent
coastal waters this morning due to a middle to upper level
diffluent environment over the island on the southeastern
periphery of an upper level trough anchored from over Florida to
the central Bahamas. The upper level trough will weaken slightly
however remain across the SW North Atlc through early next week
providing higher probability for precipitation and convection
through the first half of this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                         
Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to provide focus for the SE
CONUS Atlc coast this morning as it tracks along the Carolina
coast through Wednesday. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW
North Atlc is under the influence of a relatively diffluent
environment aloft due to a middle to upper level trough axis
extending from over the Florida peninsula to the central
Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring from
20N to 31N between 69W and 76W. The upper level troughing is
expected to persist off the coast of Florida through Tuesday.
Farther east...a trio of high centers influence the central and
eastern Atlc...a 1023 mb high centered near 32N21W...a 1022 mb
high centered near 28N28W and a 1022 mb high centered near
25N45W. Overall...fair weather conditions prevail E of 50W.

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