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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 270552

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.


Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 27.0N 50.8W at 27/0300
UTC or about 795 nm east-southeast of Bermuda and about 860 nm
northeast of the Leeward Islands moving northwest at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 26N-31N between 48W-53W.
Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
25W/26W from 10N-15N moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave is embedded within an area of dry stable air, thus
no associated showers or convection. 

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 82W from 10N-
21N moving west near 20 kt over past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb global model trough south of 16N and
is embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N-20N between the 80W-85W.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N16W and continues along 14N21W 10N30W to 4N41W
where the ITCZ begins and continues into South America near
4N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 120 nm south of monsoon trough between 29W-
34W, from the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 9N between 39W-49W, and
from 8N-10N between 54W-58W. 



A broad upper trough centered along the coast of Mexico just
south of the Rio Grande covers the west Gulf tonight. An
elongated upper low is centered over the Florida panhandle near
Tallahassee with the trough axis extending from the central
Florida peninsula to the lower Mississippi Valley supporting a
surface trough that extends from 28N93W to 24N88W. An upper
ridge anchored over the Yucatan peninsula extends a ridge axis
north along 26N86W then northwest between the above upper
troughs to southeast Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across the east Gulf from 23N-30N east of 87W
to over the Florida peninsula. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms dot the area northeast of the surface trough
between 87W-93W. Mostly clear skies cover the remainder of the
Gulf tonight. A weak surface ridge extends from over the
southeast CONUS anchored by a 1021 mb high over western
Pennsylvania. This surface ridge will persist through Saturday
night. The low between Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to move
into the east Gulf Sunday or Monday.  


The upper ridge over the Yucatan peninsula dominates the
Caribbean west of 71W while an upper low over the central
Atlantic covers the remainder of the Caribbean tonight. An upper
trough extends from the west Atlantic over Cuba near 21N76W to
the western tip of Cuba creating a diffluent environment to
generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
60/75 nm of line from 18N74W to 21N82W including the south coast
of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north
of 14N to over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola between 63W-71W and
from 13N-16N between 72W-77W. The activity in the west Caribbean
is due to the tropical wave. Tropical wave will move out of the
Caribbean late in the weekend. 


Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
across the island. Heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over
Hispaniola through Saturday.


An upper trough extends through 32N68W along 26N74W east Cuba
near 21N76W then west to the western tip of Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N to the north
coast of Cuba west of 78W to over the Florida peninsula. A
surface trough extends from 27N75W through a weak 1009 mb low
between the Bahamas and Cuba near 23N76W to over central Cuba
near 21N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
south of 23N to over Hispaniola and Cuba between 69W-78W. A weak
1014 mb low is centered near 31N65W with a surface trough
extending from the low southwestward along 28N67W to 27N70W with
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms from 27N-
33N between 63W-66W. A cutoff upper low is in the central
Atlantic near 21N56W and covers the east Caribbean. This upper
low is drawing moisture away from Tropical Storm Gaston,
generating scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
within 75 nm of line from 27N54W to 23N60W. The remainder of the
east Atlantic north of Tropical Storm Gaston east of 60W is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a series of highs north
of the discussion area. The low between the Bahamas and Cuba
will move west-northwest toward the Straits of Florida through

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