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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 011206

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.


Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.4N 73.1W at 01/1200 UTC or
about 317 nm S of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 348 nm SE of
Kingston Jamaica moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with
gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 11N-15N
between 68W-75W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
09N-17N between 67W-76W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1010 mb
low near 13N34W to 20N33W, moving W at 15-20 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind shear
and in a region of middle level diffluence. However, the TPW and
CIRA LPW imagery show dry air intrusion W of the wave axis.
Meteosat enhanced imagery confirm the presence of Saharan dry air
and dust in the wave environment, which is inhibiting convection
at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1008 mb
low near 14N51W to 23N52W, moving WNW at 10-15 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind
shear and Saharan dry air and dust is observed mainly W of its
axis. Low level moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 11N to 23N between 43W
and 55W.


The Monsoon Trough extends from 11N15W to 09N24W to 09N36W. The
ITCZ begins near 09N36W and continues to 09N45W. For information
about convection see the tropical waves section above.



A broad deep layered low is centered over Indiana with troughing
dipping southward over the eastern Gulf and a portion of the NW
basin. The upper trough supports a stationary front extending
across the northern Florida peninsula to 27N83W to 25N90W to
21N97W. The base of the upper trough extends S to Honduras and
generates a diffluent environment over the far SE basin to support
scattered to isolated showers across the Florida Straits and the
Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are occurring across the SW
Gulf generally S of the front W of 93W due in part to a diffluent
environment aloft between the troughing and a broad upper level
anticyclone centered S of the Baja California Peninsula. Clear
skies prevail N of the frontal boundary as a surface ridge remains
anchored across the central plains. The front is expected to
gradually become diffuse through Sunday with light to gentle E-NE
winds expected as ridging slides eastward to the N across the SE


The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in the
south-central Caribbean. See the special features section for
details. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of
80W while the base of an upper level trough extends from the
Florida Straits to over Honduras. The upper level trough supports
isolated showers across the NW Caribbean S of 20N W of 83W.
Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends along
Costa Rica to northern Colombia and provides focus for scattered
showers and tstms S of 14N. Otherwise, as Matthew tracks N-NW
across the central Caribbean through Monday, the trades will
continue to be disrupted. Trades will begin to re-establish from
east to west Wednesday through early next weekend. The next
tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Sunday night.


High level cloudiness associated with Hurricane Matthew in the
south-central Caribbean continue to cover the Island. Isolated
showers are likely occurring over the southern Dominican Republic
and Haiti as well as the Windward Passage. Matthew is expected to
track W through tonight before making a turn toward the NW then
north late in the weekend. Heavy showers are expected across the
Island from Sunday night through Wednesday when the cyclone will
be moving across the northern Bahamas.


The deep layered trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico extends
over the far western portions of the SW North Atlc west of 76W
supporting a stationary front extending from 31N79W to 27N82W
then across the Gulf of Mexico waters to 21N97W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms prevails N of 23N W of 73W being
supported by the trough aloft. The remainder of the Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near
the Azores. The surface ridge is expected to persist through the
weekend as Matthew moves through the Caribbean Sea. The ridge
will shift east as Matthew moves into the SW North Atlc by early

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