Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 241620

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.

Hurricane Maria is centered near 28.7N 72.9W at 24/1500 UTC or 
about 260 nm ENE of Great Abaco Island and about 415 nm SSE of
Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt 
with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is
within 135 nm of center. Scattered moderate convection is 
elsewhere from 25N-33N between 67W-77W. See the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC 
for more details.

Hurricane Lee is centered near 31.4N 49.9W at 24/1500 UTC or 
about 760 nm E of Bermuda and about 1195 nm WSW of the Azores 
moving SE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure 982 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 30N-33N between 47W-52W. 
See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Tropical wave extends from 08N30W to 21N26W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing between 22W-34W
and with global models indicating weak 850 mb vorticity N of 14N 
in the vicinity of the wave axis. No significant deep convection 
is associated with the wave axis at this time. Ongoing deep 
convection remains near the monsoon trough axis and will be 
mentioned below.

Tropical wave extends from 07N60W to 18N58W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave remains on the southwestern periphery of a 700 mb ridge 
anchored near 22N44W and lies on the western periphery of an 
upper level trough axis extending from 22N54W to a broad base 
deep in the tropics over Suriname near 04N56W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-12N between 53W-61W...and is more likely 
associated with the upper level troughing in place.

The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
13N17W to 07N35W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N35W to 06N43W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 07N-13N between 13W-28W.


A middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
centered over southern Alabama and Mississippi near 31N88W with a
trough axis extending southward over the central Gulf to a broad 
base over the northern Yucatan peninsula. An overall weak 
pressure pattern across the basin is resulting in gentle to 
moderate easterly winds with areas of scattered showers and tstms
generally occurring from 26N-31N between 84W-89W under the 
influence of the middle to upper level lifting dynamics in place. 
W of 90W...dry and stable northerly flow aloft and generally 
gentle to moderate E-SE winds are providing for fair conditions 
and mostly clear skies this afternoon. Through the remainder of 
the weekend into the middle of next week...little change is 
expected in overall conditions. By Tuesday night into 
Wednesday...E-SE flow will increase slightly into moderate to 
occasional fresh breeze conditions as ridging noses in from the 
lower Mississippi River valley region into the eastern Gulf 
Wednesday into Thursday.

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails W of 75W this afternoon as an 
overall weak pressure pattern remains in place across the central 
and western Caribbean. As a result of the weaker pressure 
pattern...winds remain generally light to gentle and variable at 
times. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 11N74W to 17N74W and
continues providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms
between 71W-76W. Farther west...skies remain mostly clear with 
fair conditions prevailing this afternoon...however a few
isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 14N W of 76W as
weaker lower pressure prevails across much of Central America. 
Finally...a tropical wave currently along 60W will continue 
approaching the Lesser Antilles through tonight into Monday
morning and increase the probability of scattered showers and 
tstms for the Windward Islands and portions of eastern Venezuela.
Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh SE winds will prevail E 
of 72W.

A surface trough currently extends from the southwestern coast 
near 17N74W to 11N74W across the central Caribbean Sea and 
continues to provide focus for scattered showers and tstms across
southern portions of the island and adjacent coastal waters this 
afternoon. The troughing will slide westward through tonight as 
weak ridging builds in from the central Atlc.

Outside the influence of Maria across the SW North Atlc waters...
and Lee centered in the vicinity of 31N50W...surface ridging 
prevails across much of the remainder of the central and eastern 
Atlc. A 1020 mb high is centered E-NE from Bermuda near 34N58W 
and a 1021 mb high is centered across the central Atlc near 
28N39W. In addition...an upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery near 25N53W generating scattered showers and tstms 
from 23N-29N between 42W-49W.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-Sep-2017 16:21:49 UTC